UFC Vegas 90: Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson Prediction, Pick and Odds

Despite both of their inconsistencies, Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson have rarely failed to put on a show and will look to do so once again in the co-main event of UFC Vegas 90.

In his third fight as a featherweight in the UFC, Hernandez (14-7, 6-6 in UFC) will look to pick up his first win in the division after losing to Billy Quarantillo and Bill Algeo in his two previous 145-pound appearances. After spending time as a ranked lightweight, Hernandez dropped down to his current weight class in 2022 but has gone just 1-2 since, with the one win as a short-notice replacement against Jim Miller at 155 pounds.

Jackson (22-6, 5-4-1 in UFC) will look to prevent the first three-fight losing streak of his career after coming off consecutive losses to Dan Ige and Quarantillo. Since re-entering the promotion in 2020, Jackson has gone 5-3 with his only losses to fighters at the top of the division.

With the odds seemingly shifting daily, Hernandez is appearing to close as a 2-1 favorite.

Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson odds and round total

Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson best bet

Betting on Hernandez is always risky with his consistency and cardio issues but this is a favorable matchup for the 31-year-old on paper given both fighters' historical trends.

As a featherweight in the UFC Hernandez is 0-2 but has lost to two of the toughest in the division outside of the top 15. In his divisional debut, Hernandez was convincingly beating Billy Quarantillo before he gassed out, an outcome that has often been the case for him.

The driving force for Hernandez in his career has been his power, with six of his 14 career wins (43 percent) by knockout. Hernandez has also won the same amount of fights by decision but Jackson has also been knocked out in four of his six career defeats (66 percent), including being the only knockout win on the record of Movlid Khaybulaev in a major promotion.

In his second stint with the promotion, Jackson has gone 5-3 in the UFC, an improvement from his initial tenure. However, of the five wins, three are no longer on the UFC roster and one other is currently a bantamweight who stepped in on short notice.

Previously nicknamed 'The Leech,' Jackson is also a fighter who favors his pressure and wrestling but has completed just 34 percent of his takedown attempts across 11 Octagon appearances. A near lifelong wrestler, Hernandez has defended 60 percent of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC.

When Hernandez wins, he has tended to do so in a one-sided affair, covering the -3.5 point spread in all six of his UFC wins. Three of those were by knockout but three were also by decision including his last win over Jim Miller.

As a loser, Jackson has only covered +3.5 once; his last outing against Quarantillo. In his four other UFC losses, Jackson was finished in each fight.

Prediction: Hernandez by decision

Best bet: Alexander Hernandez -3.5 Points (-130)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.