UFC Vegas 90: Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis 2 Prediction, Pick and Odds

Top middleweight contenders Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis will share the cage for a second time just over two years after the first meeting in the main event of UFC Vegas 90.

Despite losing the first matchup, Allen (23-5, 11-2 in UFC) will be the last fighter to walk out on April 6 as the favorite and higher-ranked contender. Since losing to Curtis in 2021, Allen has won six straight with five coming by rear-naked choke submission.

Stepping in as a short-notice replacement for Marvin Vettori, Curtis (31-10, 5-2 in UFC) has seen up-and-down results since the first fight and has largely stayed in the back end of the top 15 rankings. Curtis last fought on UFC 297, winning a split decision over Marc-Andre Barriault in his home country.

Though not as big of a favorite as he was ahead of the first matchup, the line is continuously moving toward Allen with bettors confident the fighter can avenge his last defeat.

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Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis odds and round total

Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis best bet

In the 12th main event of 2024 we are following the same pattern and taking another over in the five-round fight, a prop that has now hit nine of 11 (82 percent) so far.

The line in this matchup is significantly lower than last week in large part due to Allen finishing five of his last six opponents and Curtis owning 17 wins by knockout. The first meeting between the two ended in under two rounds, with Curtis finding the kill shot in less than seven minutes.

However, three years later, the oddsmakers suggest improvement from Allen, as he has since faced little resistance including submission wins over high-level grapplers in Andre Muniz and Paul Craig. In his career overall, Allen has won 14 of his 23 wins (61 percent) by submission.

The submission streak from Allen is daunting when taking the over but in the first fight, Allen was unable to get Curtis down, failing on three takedown attempts. In his current UFC run, Curtis boasts an incredible 92 percent takedown defense while Allen has completed less than 50 percent of his shots.

In his media day interviews and conversations all throughout fight week, Allen has mentioned his desire to prove he is the better striker than Curtis, leading all to believe he understands the wrestling defense of Curtis will cause the fight to largely take place on the feet. In similar fights, Allen does have four knockdowns but still prefers to find a "club and sub" finish, as he did with Bruno Silva. In 42 professional fights, Curtis has only been submitted once, his seventh professional fight in 2011.

The biggest threat remains the knockout power of Curtis but now 36 years old, the "Action Man" showed signs of decline in his last outing against Marc-Andre Barriault and steps into this fight on short notice. More importantly, Allen's striking has vastly improved since the first matchup and with the stakes much higher in the rematch, Allen has too much to lose to take a reckless approach.

Prediction: Allen by decision

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-155)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.