UFC Vegas 90: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Christos Giagos Prediction, Pick and Odds

The length and size of Bahamondes points to this +220 prop

April 10, 2021; Las Vegas, NV, USA;  Ignacio Bahamondes of Chile punches John Makdessi of Canada in
April 10, 2021; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Ignacio Bahamondes of Chile punches John Makdessi of Canada in / Handout Photo-USA TODAY Sports

Two lightweight mainstays will collide on the main card of UFC Vegas 90 as Ignacio Bahamondes and Christos Giagos will both attempt to bounce back from recent losses.

Although Giagos (20-11, 6-7 in UFC) lost to Daniel Zellhuber in his last outing, many were impressed by the Sanford MMA lightweight in that fight as he was able to hurt the 24-year-old before losing by submission. The defeat dropped Giagos to a losing record in the UFC, but 'The Spartan' has only fallen to the best the lightweight division has to offer with one of the strongest strength of schedules in MMA.

Bahamondes (14-5, 3-2 in UFC) last lost to Ľudovit Klein at UFC Nashville, ending his three-fight win streak. After losing to John Makdessi in his Octagon debut, Bahamondes picked up consecutive wins over veterans Roosevelt Roberts, Rong Zhu and Trey Ogden to put himself on the cusp of the divisional rankings.

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Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Christos Giagos odds and round total

Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Christos Giagos best bet

In his second stint with the UFC, Giagos has been somewhat of a gatekeeper, only losing to the elite fighters of the division. Bahamondes is not that just yet but could provide similar issues for Giagos as his last opponent, Daniel Zellhuber.

At 5'10", Giagos is not a small lightweight but momentarily struggled with the size of the 6'1" Zellhuber. Bahamondes brings a near-identical frame, giving him a four-inch reach advantage over Giagos.

In his career, Bahamondes has weaponized his size, showing improved distance management in each outing. In his five UFC fights entering UFC Vegas 90, Bahamondes has struggled with the creative striking of John Makdessi and Ľudovit Klein, something Giagos is not known for. While a high-level fighter, Giagos is best known for his fundamental striking and technical wrestling, two factors the Chilean has typically handled well.

With more fights on his record, Giagos has had a handful of bouts end early but in those that lasted longer, he has struggled with volume strikers. In his three career decision losses, Giagos was out-struck in all of them, including allowing 99 significant strikes from Drakkar Klose in 2019. Through six Octagon performances, Bahamondes averages 6.97 significant strikes landed per minute and over 91 strikes landed per fight.

Averaging nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes, Giagos is also a fan of mixing up his attack and struggles in fights he cannot take opponents down. Giagos is just 2-7 in fights he landed two takedowns or less and now gets the 85 percent takedown defense of Bahamondes, the best he will have faced to date.

When Bahamondes wins, it has tended to come by knockout, but three of his five UFC fights so far have reached a decision. In his 11 career defeats, Giagos has only been knocked out twice while losing a majority of the time by submission. Bahamondes has just one submission on his record while Giagos has three career defeats by decision. The number on Bahamondes' decision prop is more than worth the face value.

Prediction and best bet: Ignacio Bahamondes by decision (+225)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.