UFC Vegas 91: Victor Henry vs. Rani Yahya Prediction, Pick and Odds

How to back 'La Mangosta' at value as a heavy favorite
Jan 22, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Victor Henry (blue gloves) celebrates his win by unanimous
Jan 22, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Victor Henry (blue gloves) celebrates his win by unanimous / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The featured prelim of UFC Vegas 91 will be with the bantamweight division as veterans Victor Henry and Rani Yahya both look to bounce back from disappointing outcomes on April 27.

As the favorite, Henry (23-6 with one no-contest, 2-1 with one no-contest in UFC) has twice been victorious in the UFC but fought Javid Basharat to a no-contest in his last outing at UFC 294. Henry debuted in the promotion with a short-notice upset win over Raoni Barcelos and last had his hand raised in March 2023 with a split decision nod over Tony Gravely.

Yahya (28-11-1 with one no-contest, 13-5-1 with one no-contest in UFC) has been with the UFC since 2011 but has not won a fight since 2021. Since beating Kyung-Ho Kang by decision at UFC Vegas 43, the 39-year-old has only fought once, losing to Montel Jackson by knockout at UFC Vegas 71.

Though both fighters own a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, the matchup is set up to be a classic "striker vs. grappler" dynamic with Henry preferring to keep his fights upright and Yahya intent on initiating grappling exchanges.

Victor Henry vs. Rani Yahya odds and round total

Victory Henry vs. Rani Yahya best bet

Yahya's fights are always unorthodox and sometimes difficult to predict but this matchup should all be Henry's to lose. Henry failed in a similar matchup as a large favorite against Raphael Assuncao in 2022 but now at 36 years old cannot afford another similar setback.

As we mentioned in the intro, Henry is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt but cannot fall into the trap Yahya will look to set up and be content to grapple. When Henry has found success in the UFC, he has overwhelmed opponents with a ridiculous amount of volume striking, averaging 8.26 significant strikes per minute in the Octagon through four appearances.

As he always does, Yahya will not allow striking to happen and immediately look to close distance but while he excels in grappling, he is a subpar wrestler. In his lengthy career, Yahya has only completed 32 percent of his attempted takedowns, while Henry owns a strong 78 percent takedown defense. Henry has been taken down in every UFC fight so far but has never been submitted in his career and has been able to return to his feet quickly each time.

Now entering his 40th professional fight at 39 years old, Yahya's pace and durability have waned in his recent outings. Yahya has been knocked down in his last two fights and suffered a vicious knockout in his most recent performance, but Henry has not won by knockout since 2020. In 23 professional fights, Henry has won a majority of his 23 wins by decision (39 percent) while Yahya has lost seven of his 11 defeats (64 percent) after the final horn.

Per the status quo of Yahya's fights, this one will likely get strange at times and not be the most exciting, but Henry is more than capable of doing enough to deal with the grappling-heavy approach of Yahya.

Prediction and best bet: Victor Henry by decision (+125)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.