UFC Vegas 93: Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson Prediction, Pick and Odds

The flyweight prospect of the week will be Tatsuro Taira in the main event but Asu Almabayev will also have his chance to show out at UFC Vegas 93 against Jose Johnson.

Almabayev (19-2, 2-0 in UFC) has not been in the UFC for even a full year but has already gained the attention of most fans for his two dominant wins in the Octagon. Currently riding a 15-fight win streak, Almabayev is the second-largest favorite of UFC Vegas 93.

Johnson (16-8, 1-1 in UFC) is shockingly going to attempt a move down to flyweight after spending the last five years of his career at bantamweight. Johnson made it into the UFC on his third attempt in 2022 and has since gone 1-1 in the promotion, most recently picking up a win over Chad Anheliger at UFC Vegas 82.

Track Jaren Kawada's daily picks and betting record on BetStamp here.

Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson odds and round total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Asu Almabayev -550
• Jose Johnson +410

• Total round: 2.5 (Over +120/Under -150)

Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson best bet

Johnson will literally be the biggest challenge of Almabayev's career but the path to victory for him in this fight is plain as day.

Assuming Johnson makes weight and this fight goes through, the Michigan native will have a massive size advantage. Johnson was already big for a bantamweight at 6'0" with a 71.5-inch reach and is attempting to pack that frame into 125 pounds.

With his frame and length, Johnson is an above-average striker. However, he has never fared well against grapplers and now faces arguably the best one of his career. In his four Octagon fights, Johnson has been taken down a staggering 24 times while defending against just 36 percent of attempts. In a single fight, he has been floored as many as 12 times and as few as twice.

Almabayev enters this fight on the heels of a nine-takedown performance in his last win over CJ Vergara. He could not get a finish but racked up over nine minutes of control time against an opponent who missed weight. Vergara, to his credit, owns a respectable 60 percent takedown defense, a much higher clip than Johnson.

Of his 19 career wins, Almabayev has won nine by submission (47 percent). Conversely, Johnson has lost four of his eight career defeats (50 percent) by submission.

Prediction: Almabayev by submission in round two

Best bet: Asu Almabayev by submission (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.