UFC Vegas 96: Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales Prediction, Pick and Odds

In his fifth UFC fight, undefeated prospect Michael Morales will get his chance to become a ranked contender against divisional gatekeeper Neil Magny at UFC Vegas 96.

Magny (29-11, 22-10 in UFC) has alternated wins and losses in his last seven fights that includes all four of his wins in that time against unranked opponents. Magny pulled off arguably the most impressive win of his career in his last time out at UFC 297 with a comeback TKO win over Mike Malott in the final 15 seconds of the fight.

Morales (16-0, 4-0 in UFC) will have a chance to become the youngest member of the UFC welterweight rankings at UFC Vegas 96 at 25 years old. Through four fights in the Octagon, Morales already has notable wins over two fringe contenders in Jake Matthews and Max Griffin.

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Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales Odds and Total

Moneyline

• Magny: +575
• Morales: -850

Total: 2.5 (Over -180/Under +140)

Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales Prediction and Pick

Although Magny has made a career out of beating rising prospects such as Morales, this matchup is different from the one he just had with Mike Malott. Even though he was out-matched and losing the whole fight until the final minute of the fight, Magny had a decisive size advantage that he typically uses to point fight his way to decision wins.

Against Morales, that size advantage will not be there. Morales will be three inches shorter but is one of the few welterweights on the roster that can match Magny's length and reach. Overall, Morales is more skilled in nearly every aspect of the game as the stronger fighter and better athlete with quicker and more accurate strikes.

When Magny loses, it tends to be by submission, tapping out in six of his 11 — 55 percent — career losses. However, Morales has just one career submission over a fighter making his professional debut in 2019. The Ecuadorian tends to win by knockout, something no fighter has been able to do to Magny since 2018.

As he showed in his previous two fights, Morales has the ability to beat elite fighters for 15 minutes and will not gas out the way Malott did. FIghters who are as big of a favorite as he currently is tend to have bettors juicing up the knockout and submission props but with Morales taking a more methodical and technical approach as he has reached the top of the division, he will not be the guy to break down the relatively rugged durability of Magny.

Prediction and best bet: Michael Morales by decision (+105)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.