UNC vs. Pittsburgh: Tar Heels in Great Upset Spot on Thursday Night

UNC takes on Pitt in Thursday night ACC action.
UNC takes on Pitt in Thursday night ACC action. / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

College football fans are in for a treat tonight as the No. 25 ranked Pittsburgh Panthers are set to host the North Carolina Tar Heels in ACC action.

WynnBET has Pittsburgh set as a 6.5-point favorite, but I wouldn't rush to the window to bet on the Panthers to cover the spread. In fact, I think UNC is in a great spot to pull off the upset.

Why UNC Can Pull Off The Upset

WynnBET has UNC's moneyline odds set at +195 for tonight's game, and I'm going to be backing them at that number.

Despite sporting a 5-4 record on the season, UNC is a better football team than people are giving them credit for. The Tar Heels offense ranks 12th in yards per play (6.6), seventh in third down conversion percentage (49.57%), and 38th in red zone scoring percentage (88.24%). Pittsburgh's offense ranks behind in all three of those statistics.

The way to beat this UNC team is to run the ball against them. It ranks 97th in opponent yards per carry, allowing 4.7 yards per rush. This should work in UNC's favor, as Pittsburgh is a pass-first team. 53.25% of their called plays are pass plays, which is the 28th highest rate in the country.

If you're looking for a plus-money play for tonight, you could do a lot worse than UNC at +195 on the moneyline.

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