Uncertainty Surrounding Tua Tagovailoa Limits Dolphins' Ceiling
By Peter Dewey
The Miami Dolphins are confident in Tua Tagovailoa. In fact, they’re so confident they traded down from the No. 3 pick to the No. 6 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and then took a wide receiver from Tagovailoa’s alma mater, the University of Alabama, with said pick.
Miami has been all about building around Tagovailoa this offseason. The Dolphins signed wide receiver Will Fuller, they drafted Jaylen Waddle at No. 6 and added running back Malcolm Brown in free agency all to improve the supporting cast around their signal-caller.
It’s important when organizations put their young players in the best position to succeed, but is some of Miami’s confidence in Tagovailoa a little overblown? Vegas thinks so.
Miami is projected at 9.5 wins for the 2021 season on WynnBET with the under (-150) being the favorite to the over (+125). For a team that won 10 games in a 16-game season in 2020, it’s little surprising that the Dolphins have better odds to finish with fewer wins this season than last with the NFL moving to a 17-game schedule.
But the Dolphins have a major unknown in Tagovailoa, and he plays the game’s most important position. Sure, Miami was 6-3 in Tagovailoa’s nine starts last season, but in one of those wins against the Las Vegas Raiders, Tagovailoa was pulled and veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick orchestrated a stunning comeback win. The Dolphins won four games with Fitzmagic under center in 2020 and there’s no guarantee they would win those games if Tagovailoa had won the job entering the season.
The Dolphins let Fitzpatrick, who wanted an opportunity to start, leave in free agency this offseason and brought in another veteran, but one with less experience, in Jacoby Brissett. But would head coach Brian Flores be as willing to turn to Brissett this coming season as he was with Fitzpatrick in 2020?
It’s hard to say.
Tagovailoa threw for 1,814 yards in 10 games (nine starts) last season and totaled 11 touchdowns to five interceptions. He was pulled twice by Flores, once against the Denver Broncos and in the win over Las Vegas.
It’s a rather uninspiring stat line for the former No. 5 overall pick, and it doesn’t leave oddsmakers with a ton of confidence in the Dolphins. Miami has one of the league’s better defensive units, but asking that defense to recreate its league-best turnover percentage from last year to carry the team to 10-plus wins is no tall task.
If Tagovailoa takes the next step in 2021, the Dolphins will be a prime candidate to beat their current projection and find themselves in the playoffs after narrowly missing the postseason in 2020. But if the offense struggles as much as it did at times with Tagovailoa under center last season, there is very little reason to believe that Miami will be better in 2021 without Fitzpatrick as insurance.