Undefeated Michigan State Still Isn't Getting Much Love as Five-Point Home Underdog vs. Michigan

Michigan and Michigan State face off this week and the odds have some asking. Are the Spartans getting dissed as an undefeated Top-10 team as a five-point underdog against the Wolverines? Hard to say really.

These are two of the top-10 team in the country this week according to the AP, and they have some of the top offensive talents in the nation and are each undefeated on the year. 

So, where do that five points come from? Let’s take a look at some betting trends and rankings and try to hunt them down. 

First, let’s review the current odds from WynnBET Sportsbook for this massively important Big 10 game.  

Michigan vs. Michigan State Spread and Odds

Spread:

• Michigan: -5 (-110)
• Michigan State: +5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Michigan: -200
• Michigan State: +175

Do the Wolverines deserve to be five-point favorites? 

One big difference between these two teams heading into Week 8 in their respective previous games. Michigan State was up against Indiana in its last game. The Hoosiers entered that game with a 2-3 record on the year and had yet to win a game in the Big 10.

Despite a win, the Spartans won by just five points. Michigan State struggled to get going against a defense that ranks outside of the Top-100 in most categories, managing just 241 total yards. Hell, even Indiana had 322 on the day. That brings me to the Spartans defense, which despite being touted as a top-defense by some and allows 19.5 points per game to opponents.

Indiana is hardly an opponent for a Top-10 team and it nearly won this game two weeks ago.

Michigan, on the other hand, also played a game against a lesser Big Ten opponent its last time out, facing Northwestern. The difference is that, against a similarly talented team as the Hoosiers, Michigan won 33-7, allowing just a single second-quarter touchdown to the Wildcats.

Michigan totaled 457 yards in that win, 294 of it coming from its potent rushing attack. Even more, important is that Michigan didn’t have to show the Spartans anything new in this game.

It was a breeze. The team didn’t need to use any still-secret plays to snatch a win or anything like that. It was just line up and run the ball down their throats. Business as usual. While we have to wait another week to see what Michigan does to the Hoosiers in Week 10, I doubt they Wolverines win by “just” five. 

Michigan has it on offense but is also the second-ranked team in the nation at stopping opposing teams from scoring. UM allows just 14.3 points per game, second only to Georgia. The Spartans allow nearly 20 points per game to opposing teams. And, considering they give up an average of 406.1 yards per game, the Spartans are lucky they don’t cough up a lot more points.

Having said that, I think the five-point spread is more than fair and could be 5.5 or 6.0 and I wouldn’t really think twice about the Wolverines this weekend. It is a perfect spot for them to march into East Lansing and knock another team out of the Big 10 championship race.