UNLV-Fresno State Prediction, Odds and Spread for College Football Week 4

Fresh off one of their biggest wins in recent program history, No. 22 Fresno State will return home to face one of the worst FBS teams in the country, UNLV. 

The Runnin’ Rebels are coming off a 48-3 loss to No. 14 Iowa State and are catching more than four touchdowns against the Bulldogs on the road, how should we play it?

Check out the odds, courtesy of WynnBET, for this Mountain West showdown on Friday night.

Fresno State-UNLV Odds

Spread:

UNLV: +30 (-110)

Fresno State: -30 (-110)

Moneyline: 

N/A

Total: 58.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Fresno State-UNLV Betting Trends

• UNLV is 3-5-1 under Arroyo.
• Arroyo coached UNLV teams are 6-3 to the UNDER.
• Since 2015, Fresno State is 10-9 as a home favorite. 

Fresno State-UNLV Prediction

I understand it’s not the sexy pick, and UNLV is far from a good football program, but the value lies with the Runnin’ Rebs catching 30 points. 

Fresno State pulled off a victory at the Rose Bowl against a ranked UCLA team just six days ago, and now are facing a bottom feeder in the conference they are likely going to take care of. Why would the Bulldogs get up for this game and put a beat down? Not to mention, starting quarterback Jake Haener was badly hurt at the end of the UCLA victory and his status is questionable for Friday night. 

Haener was incredible in the victory, but he's banged up now. He may start, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s pulled early when the game is in hand for the home team. 

Again, UNLV is far from a good team, but I see the game script keeping this game somewhat close. If Fresno State builds up a big lead it may go vanilla and look to pound the rock to burn the clock and get off the field. 

UNLV, to its credit, has been decent at limiting explosiveness, as its in the top half of the country in explosive play rush and pass defense. While it is allowing quarterbacks to complete more than 73% of their passes and average nearly five yards a carry, the Runnin' Rebels have been able to keep a lot in front of them. 

The Runnin’ Rebs have alternated four new quarterbacks in, and their offensive line has put up zero resistance, allowing 14 sacks through three games, but they have faced two straight Power 5 opponents in a row. The team is being undervalued slightly.

On the other side, this is a huge letdown spot for Fresno State, who might be more interested in staying healthy rather than putting the hurt on the lowly Rebels.

Give me UNLV at +30, and I’d still play it at a dead number of +29 too, but tread carefully, we have a full college football slate on Saturday to bet into. 

Pick: UNLV +30, play to +29

Itching to back the big underdog? Make sure to bet it on WynnBET Sportsbook!