UNLV vs. Fresno State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 9
By Reed Wallach
UNLV and Fresno State each enter Saturday's night matchup 6-1 in hopes of making a push for the conference title game.
The Rebels survived a home game against Colorado State, making a field goal in the final seconds to remain undefeated in Mountain West play. Now, the team is on the road to face the defending champs Fresno State in a game that will help sort out the top of the conference.
UNLV has been far better than expected under first-year head coach Barry Odom, how will the team handle a stiff road trip to face Fresno State, who will hope to have starting quarterback Mikey Keene back after its BYE week?
Here's everything you need to know for this marquee Mountain West showdown:
UNLV vs. Fresno State Odds, Spread and Total
Fresno State vs. UNLV Betting Trends
- UNLV is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
- UNLV is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season
- Fresno State is 3-4 ATS this season
- UNLV has gone OVER in two of three games as an underdog
UNLV vs. Fresno State How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 28th
- Game Time: 10:30 PM EST
- Venue: Valley Children's Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1
- UNLV Record: 6-1
- Fresno State Record: 6-1
Get our picks for EVERY Top 25 team in action on Saturday against the spread here!
UNLV vs. Fresno State Key Players to Watch
UNLV
Jayden Maiava: After Week 1 starter Doug Brumfield went down with an injury, the freshman Jayden Maiava has taken over the starting role and not given it up. Leading a rush-first attack, Maiava has the Rebels humming on offense, 27th in EPA/Rush. While being eased into the role of starter, we saw the freshman really open it up last week against Colorado State, posting a career-high in passing attempts (35) and passing for 346 yards in the win.
Fresno State
Mikey Keene: Keene missed the Bulldogs game against Utah State ahead of the team's BYE week, but he did warm up and was in pads, hinting that he should be good to go in this one. The UCF transfer has completed more than 68% of his passes, but the knock on this Bulldogs offense is that it lacks big passing plays, outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate and 69th in yards per play.
UNLV vs. Fresno State Prediction and Pick
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I'm not sold on this Fresno State team, one that has played an incredibly light schedule to date, to cover a spread over a touchdown. To be fair, UNLV has faced a limited schedule as well outside of Michigan (the best team in the country) and Vanderbilt (possibly the worst Power Five team in the country), however, the team has shown a ton of promise under the first-year head coach Odom and innovative Brennan Marion.
UNLV is 13th in explosive rush rate while averaging over six yards per play. The team's ability to run and make timely passes have made third downs manageable for the offense under a freshman quarterback. The Rebels are sixth nationally in third down conversion percentage at over 53%.
Fresno State hasn't been able to establish the run at all this season, the team is outside the top 100 in yards per carry and has allowed 20 sacks, 103rd in the country. While UNLV's defense is relatively raw, the team has been able to make plays in the backfield (36th in sacks) and has generated 15 turnovers, a top-10 mark in the country.
I'm not sold that Fresno State, who has struggled points against the likes of Arizona State (29) and Nevada (27) can win with a margin against an explosive UNLV offense. The Bulldogs are right around the national average in Pro Football Focus' rush defense-grade and bottom 15 in tackling grade.
Against a Rebels offense that has scored 40 or more in all but two games this season, I trust them to stay close and be live for an upset.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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