After back-to-back upset wins over Fresno State and Colorado State, the 16-11 UNLV Runnin' Rebels are runnin' hot as they take on the 12-13 Nevada Wolf Pack tonight at 9:00 p.m. MST.
While UNLV has covered the spread in four straight, the Wolf Pack have rebounded from a mid-season slump to win three straight. The Runnin' Rebels beat Nevada 69-58 earlier this month on their home court - can they emerge victorious in enemy territory as well or will the Wolf Pack's home-court advantage prove to be too much?
Here are the odds via WynnBET:
UNLV vs Nevada Odds, Spread and Total
- UNLV +2 (-102)
- Nevada -2 (-102)
- UNLV +118
- Nevada -125
- 144 (Over -110/Under -110)
UNLV vs. Nevada Prediction and Pick
This is one of my favorite spots of the day and I absolutely love the Runnin' Rebels here. They're 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games, covering by an insane average of 17.5 points per game. Now they're underdogs to an underdogs to an underachieving Nevada team that they already beat? Yes please, sign me up.
With the 58th-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, per Bart Torvik, UNLV will exploit a poor Wolf Pack defense that ranks just 276th in defensive effective field goal percentage. In the first matchup, UNLV launched 32 shots from beyond the arc to take advantage of Nevada's 292nd-ranked 3-point defense.
They only made 12 of them, but spreading out a Nevada team that likes to run helps create open lanes inside for easy shots and also gives them opportunities for long rebounds as evidenced by the 11 offensive rebounds they generated.
My concern is that this could be a let-down spot for UNLV, but luckily it's a let-down spot for Nevada too. Yes, the Wolf Pack have won three in a row. But two of them came against San Jose State, whose 1-14 conference record is the worst in the Mountain West.
Before they had the good fortunate of playing the literal worst team back-to-back, Nevada was just 3-11 ATS in their previous 14. Even worse, the Wolf Pack are a disgusting 1-5 ATS in their last six as a home favorite while UNLV has covered in three of their past four as a road underdog.
I'm genuinely shocked the Runnin' Rebels are underdogs and I'm runnin' straight to the counter at WynnBET to bet them today. Give me UNLV +118 on the moneyline to send Nevada to 8-17 ATS on the year
Pick: UNLV +118