US Open Betting Preview: Odds, Strategy, and Picks

There’s nothing quite like the week of a major during golf season. For golf fans and bettors, major championships are some of the most fun events on the sports calendar to bet on and watch.

This week it’s the U.S. Open, set to take place at the South Course at Torrey Pines. It’s the third major championship of the 2021 calendar year, and the second time the event has been hosted at Torrey Pines, with the last time occurring back in 2008 when Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in a legendary 18-hole playoff.

US Open Odds

WynnBET has Jon Rahm set as the betting favorite at +900. Rahm has yet to win a major championship in his career, but has historically found success at Torrey Pines. In five career starts at the Farmers Insurance Open, which is the annual event hosted at Torrey Pines, Rahm has four finishes of 7th or better, including a win at the 2017 edition of the tournament.

Another intriguing name on the odds list is defending US Open champion Bryson DeChambeau at +1500. He won the event by six strokes in September of last year.

Here are the top 10 odds to win the 2021 U.S. Open:

• Jon Rahm +900
• Dustin Johnson +1500
• Bryson DeChambeau +1700
• Tony Finau +1700
• Xander Schauffele +1700
• Brooks Koepka +1750
• Jordan Spieth +1750
• Rory McIlroy +2000
• Collin Morikawa +2200
• Justin Thomas +2250

How to Handicap Torrey Pines

In true U.S. Open fashion, the South Course at Torrey Pines will play as a long Par 71 at 7,643 yards. Additionally, the rough will be deeper and more treacherous than what we’re used to seeing at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Driving distance will be more important than accuracy this week. If the long hitters miss the fairway, they’ll have a much easier approach shot into the green, even if it comes from the rough. If a shorter hitter misses the fairway, they’ll be lucky to save par.

Golfers also need to be dialed in with their long irons this week, as 51% of approach shots hit by winners at the South Course have been from 175 yards or longer. 

Here are the five key stats to handicap the 2021 U.S. Open:

• Driving Distance
• Approaches from 175-200 yards
• Rough Proximity
• Strokes gained: around the green
• Strokes gained: putting

Picks to Win the 2021 US Open

Xander Schauffele +1700

I am addicted to betting on Xander Schauffele, especially at major championships. Maybe it’s because he seems to be in contention on Sunday at every one (four top 10s in last eight starts), or maybe it’s because I like getting my heart broken, but I refuse to stop now.

This time, Schauffele will be playing at his home track. He was born and raised in San Diego, and spent a lot of time playing at Torrey Pines throughout his life. While not historically performing well at the course in his professional career, he turned that narrative around at this year’s Farmers Insurance Open with a 2nd place finish.

He ranks T26 in driving distance, and 8th in strokes gained: putting, which are keys to success this week. He also has been fantastic at U.S. Opens in his career, finishing in the top six in all four starts he has had at the event.

Patrick Cantlay +2500

Another golfer that I seem to love to bet on at every major tournament. Patrick Cantlay presents a ton of value at +2500 (bet $100 to profit $2,500) to win this year’s US Open. He’s entering this week coming off a win at the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago, and his stats support the idea that he should be further up the odds list than where he is.

Cantlay ranks fourth on the PGA Tour this season in total strokes gained, including 15th in strokes gained: off-the-tee and 24th in strokes gained: approach the green. He also ranks 55th in driving distance and T20 in approaches from 175-200 yards. Both are key stats for Torrey Pines this week.

Sam Burns +10000

If you’re looking for a dark-horse pick to win the U.S. Open, look no further than Sam Burns. The 24 year old continues to fly under the radar this PGA Tour season, despite finishing in the top 10 six times in 19 starts, including his first career victory at the Valspar Championship.

Burns’ style of play fits Torrey Pines to perfection. He ranks 30th in driving distance, 12th in approach shots from 175-200 yards, T20 in rough proximity, and T25 in strokes gained: putting. He also finished T18 at this year’s Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.

You won’t find a better bet at 100/1 than Sam Burns.