US Open Picks, Odds and Betting Preview (Who Will Win at Brookline?)

The US Open is set to be held at The Country Club in Brookline this week.
The US Open is set to be held at The Country Club in Brookline this week. / Cliff Hawkins/GettyImages

Wake up, golf fans and bettors, it's U.S. Open week!

After a wild and dramatic week in the sport, the golf world descends about Brookline, Mass. for the 2022 U.S. Open set to be hosted at The Country Club.

The drama that has unfolded with golfers leaving the PGA Tour to compete in the new (and controversial) LIV Golf circuit will come to a head this week when those golfers come to the U.S. Open to face the American media and fans for the first time since officially resigning from the Tour.

But, instead of diving into all of that, let's get into this event from a betting perspective. Let's start by looking at the top 10 odds to win the event, courtesy of WynnBET, and then I'll break down how to handicap the course, as well as my top outright picks to win.

Odds to Win the US Open

  • Justin Thomas +800
  • Rory McIlroy +1000
  • Jon Rahm +1200
  • Scottie Scheffler +1200
  • Cameron Smith +1500
  • Collin Morikawa +2000
  • Xander Schauffele +2000
  • Brooks Koepka +2500
  • Dustin Johnson +2500
  • Jordan Spieth +2500

How to Handicap the US Open

In classic U.S. Open fashion, targeting golfers who rank highly in strokes gained: off-the-tee is the best, and most important place to start. The USGA loves to make set-ups difficult for bad drivers of the golf ball. Some years, distance will prove to be the most important. Other years, accuracy will be worth a little bit more. But, every year, you have to at least be good at both to have any chance.

This year, at Brookline, accuracy is likely going to be slightly more important than places like Winged Foot, considering the unique shape of some of the fairways. With that being said, distance will certainly also be an advantage.

10 of the last 13 U.S. Open winners ranked inside the top 20 in Strokes Gained: off-the-tee. That goes to show just how important that stat is this week.

Secondly, is obviously, approach play. Since we don't have a ton of historical data on Brookline, we aren't going to be able to key in on specific approach distances, but just know that you have to back a good iron player this week as well.

Strokes gained: tee-to-green, as a whole, is massively important as U.S. Opens. Five of the last nine U.S. Open winners ranked inside the top 10 in strokes gained: tee-to-green heading into the tournament.

Obviously you can't completely ignore the short game, but as long as the golfer you bet on is inside the top 100 in strokes gained: around-the-green and strokes gained: putting, I wouldn't worry too much about them.

Key Stats for the 2022 U.S. Open

  • Strokes gained: tee-to-green
  • Strokes gained: off-the-tee
  • Rough proximity
  • Scrambling %
  • Strokes gained: putting

Picks to Win the 2022 U.S. Open

Jon Rahm +1200

Now that oddsmakers have finally backed off a little bit on Jon Rahm, his odds are set at a number that I can wager on. The defending champion is built for U.S. Open golf courses. He ranks first in strokes gained: off-the-tee and fourth in strokes gained: tee-to-green.

His chipping and putting was a massive issue early in the season, but he has gained strokes around the greens in four-straight events, and gained strokes putting in three of his last four starts, so he's start to come around in those areas. I'll bet on him to go back-to-back this year.

Matt Fitzpatrick +2500

I just can't help myself. Here I am, once again betting on Matt Fitzpatrick to win. Despite not yet getting on a win on North American soil, he virtually has no weaknesses and is statistically one of the best golfers on Tour this season. He ranks 10th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 25th in strokes gained: approach, and fifth in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He also has a fantastic short game, ranking 18th in chipping and 22nd in putting.

He also has one thing that virtually nobody else in the field has; a win at Brookline. Fitzpatrick won the 2013 U.S. Amateur, which was the last big event hosted at The Country Club. Sure, it was almost a decade ago, but it has to give him at least a little bit of confidence this week.

Will Zalatoris +2500

When I interviewed Will Zalatoris ahead of the Masters this year, I asked him what style of golf course he thinks fits his game the best. He said the longer and tougher the course is, the better. He cited Torrey Pines, the home of last year's U.S. Open, as one of his favorite courses and it showed with a second place finish there at the Farmers Insurance Open this year.

Zalatoris ranks second on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and he already has five top 10 finishes at Majors in his young career. This could be the week he finally gets it done.

Want a chance to win a free $1,000 Visa Gift Card? We're running a giveaway for the U.S. Open this year! Find out how to enter in the tweet below.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.