U.S. Senior Open Picks, Odds and Expert Predictions From a Guy Who Played the Course
Humble brag. I shot a 94 at Saucon Valley, home of this week's U.S. Senior Open a few weeks ago. No big deal!
Now that I've established myself as a true golfing expert ahead of giving a few picks for the U.S. Senior Open, let's jump back into reality and discuss the tournament. This should be a fun event at a course that's not outrageously long, but does have the firm, fast greens that have become staples of USGA events.
That was my big takeaway from Saucon Valley: putting will be critical. The other stats I'm looking at to handicap this event are Scrambling, Total Driving and Ball Striking.
Now, let's get into those picks, with odds coming from consensus books.
US Senior Open Picks and Odds
Miguel Angel Jimenez (+1000)
Ah, "The Mechanic." A man who likes to smoke cigars on the course and fix cars off it. If only we all could live his life.
Beyond being one of the coolest players ever, Jimenez has been on fire this season, earning two wins and six other top 10 finishes in 11 events played. He's done most of that damage with the flat stick, ranking 4th on tour in putting average, 3rd in total driving, 3rd in ball striking and 4th in scrambling.
The U.S. Open was never his best event when he was on the main tour, but he does have a runner-up finish in 2000 and another top 6. On the Champions Tour, however, he has two runner-up finishes at this event and two other top 10s. There's a lot to like here.
Pádraig Harrington (+1100)
Harrington is competing in his first U.S. Senior Open, but then again the last two winners of this event have been first-time participants.
Beyond happenstance, Harrington has the game to win at Saucon Valley. He's 2nd in total driving, 10th in ball striking and 6th in putting average. While his scrambling leaves a bit to be desired (36th on tour), his driving distance (1st) could be the difference maker here. Not saying he will overpower this golf course, but he's got the best chance to do so.
Also, Harrington had 3 top 5s and five top 10s in his career at the U.S. Open. His game is better suited for the British Open, but he can absolutely win on these kinds of courses.
Retief Goosen (+2700)
A two-time winner of the U.S. Open, Goosen finished as runner-up in this event last year and had another top 15 finish in his only other appearance. He got off to a hot start this season with a win and five other top 10's in his first eight events, but has since failed to break the top 25 in his last three events. But players like Goosen don't stay down for long, especially in formats they like and feel comfortable in. I'd say the U.S. Open and Goosen fit that mold.
This season, he's 7th in putting average and 7th in ball striking. His scrambling (43rd) and total driving (16th) aren't exactly encouraging, but he also hits the ball far (7th in distance), is 5th in greens in regulation and 3rd in birdie average. Those are encouraging for a man who loves this format. At +2700, this feels like a possible steal.