USA Today Win Totals vs. Vegas Win Total Projections for 2023 Season

The always controversial USA Today NFL record projections have been officially released as all 32 teams are now in training camp with the hall-of-fame game just a week away.

USA Today has the Bills with the best record at 13-4, while the Cardinals are predicted to have the worst record at 2-15.

Despite what USA Today says, we all know by now that the most accurate predictions are those set by the oddsmakers at sportsbooks. So, I think it's an interesting exercise to compare how USA Today predicts teams records will be with each team's projected win total.

Let's take a look.

USA Today vs. Vegas NFL Projected Win Totals

Arizona Cardinals Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 2-15
• Vegas' win total: 4.5

Not only does USA Today think the Cardinals will have the worst record this season, but the 4.5 win total set by the oddsmakers is also the lowest win total amongst all 32 teams. There's a very real chance to Cardinals will be selecting first overall at next year's NFL Draft.

Atlanta Falcons Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 9-8
• Vegas' win total: 8.5

Baltimore Ravens Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 11-6
• Vegas' win total: 10.5

Buffalo Bills Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 13-4
• Vegas' win total: 10.5

USA Today is high on the Bills, giving them the best predicted record at 13-4. The oddsmakers aren't quite as high on them. The Bengals, Chiefs, and Eagles all have higher win totals at 11.5.

Carolina Panthers Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 7-10
• Vegas' win total: 7.5

Chicago Bears Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 7-10
• Vegas' win total: 7.5

Cincinnati Bengals Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 12-5
• Vegas' projected win total: 11.5

Cleveland Browns Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 10-7
• Vegas' projected wins: 9.5

Dallas Cowboys Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 9-8
• Vegas' projected win total: 9.5

Denver Broncos Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 10-7
• Vegas' projected wins: 8.5

Detroit Lions Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 11-6
• Vegas' win total: 9.5

This is a perfect example of where the public's perception of the Lions this season is compared to more realistic expectations. For some reason, a lot of people think the Lions will go from missing the playoffs to being the second best team in the conference. Oddsmakers aren't so sure.

Green Bay Packers Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 7-10
• Vegas' win total: 7.5

Houston Texans Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 6-11
• Vegas' win total: 6.5

Indianapolis Colts Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 4-13
• Vegas' win total: 6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 10-7
• Vegas' win total: 9.5

Kansas City Chiefs Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 10-7
• Vegas' win total: 11.5

USA Today isn't very high on the defending champions. Haven't we all learned our lesson when it comes to not believing the Chiefs? They have the Bengals, Bills, Jets, Ravens, and Steelers all with better records than the Chiefs.

Las Vegas Raiders Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 3-14
• Vegas' win total: 6.5

Los Angeles Chargers Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 7-10
• Vegas' win total: 9.5

USA Today might just hate the AFC West? Not only are they low on the Chiefs, but they project the Chargers to take a significant step back this season, just one year removed from making the playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 7-10
• Vegas' win total: 6.5

Miami Dolphins Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 11-6
• Vegas' projected win total: 9.5

Minnesota Vikings Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 7-10
• Vegas' win total: 8.5

New England Patriots Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 7-10
• Vegas' win total: 7.5

New Orleans Saints Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 9-8
• Vegas' win total: 9.5

New York Giants Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 6-11
• Vegas' win total: 7.5

New York Jets Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 12-5
• Vegas' win total: 9.5

The Jets are shaping up to be the Lions of the AFC. Everyone seems to believe in them, but oddsmakers don't hold quite as much faith with Aaron Rodgers and New York team that struggled last season.

Philadelphia Eagles Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 12-5
• Vegas' win total: 11.5

Pittsburgh Steelers Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 11-6
• Vegas' win total: 8.5

11 wins for the Pittsburgh Steelers this season might be the boldest claim USA Today has. Kenny Pickett is going to have to take a gigantic step forward to lead this squad to an 11-6 record in a tough AFC North.

San Francisco 49ers Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 11-6
• Vegas' win total: 10.5

Seattle Seahawks Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 10-7
• Vegas' win total: 8.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 5-12
• Vegas' win total: 6.5

Tennessee Titans Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 9-8
• Vegas' win total: 7.5

Washington Commanders Projected Wins

• USA Today projected record: 7-10
• Vegas' win total: 6.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change