USC vs. Cal Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, Feb. 7 (Trust Golden Bears at Home)

Feb 3, 2024; Tempe, Arizona, USA; California Golden Bears guard Jalen Celestine (32) puts up a layup
Feb 3, 2024; Tempe, Arizona, USA; California Golden Bears guard Jalen Celestine (32) puts up a layup / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

A Pac-12 battle is set for tonight between California and USC. California is looking to keep its momentum going after a double-digit win at Arizona State.

Meanwhile, USC comes to Berkley amid a terrible run of form amidst injuries, falling way short of lofty standards, also 9-13 on the year. Despite winning on Saturday, the Trojans' struggles are set to continue on the road Wednesday with the team catching more than a bucket on the road.

Can Cal continue its upward trajectory under a promising first-year head coach? Here's our full betting breakdown:

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USC vs. Cal Odds, Spread and Total

Cal vs. USC Betting Trends

  • Cal is 1-7 against the spread (ATS) this season as a favorite
  • USC is 2-5 ATS as an underdog this season
  • USC has gone OVER in 14 of 22 games this season
  • Cal has gone OVER in 13 of 22 games this season
  • Cal has gone UNDER in six of eight games as a favorite

Cal vs. USC How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, February 7th
  • Game Time: 11:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Haas Pavilion
  • How to Watch (TV): PAC-12 Network
  • [Away Team] Record: 9-13
  • [Home Team] Record: 9-13

USC vs. Cal Key Players to Watch


Boogie Ellis: With backcourt mate Isiah Collier set to miss more time, Ellis continues to shoulder the offensive load for the spiraling Trojans. Ellis is averaging more than 17 points per game on a career-high 43% shooting from three. However, he was quiet in the team's win over the weekend against Oregon State, scoring only six points.


Jaylon Tyson: The 6'7" junior is averaging 20 points per game and grabbing over seven rebounds per game for the Golden Bears, who are fresh off a road win at Arizona State by double digits. Tyson shined in that one, scoring 17 points while grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out five assists. Can he cook yet again against another middling PAC-12 defense?

USC vs. Cal Prediction and Pick

USC snapped a six-game losing streak by knocking off Oregon State at home, but are back on the road to face Cal, who the team held off at home on January 3rd, 82-74. It's worth noting that ShotQuality deemed that Cal wins that game 85% of the time given the shot profile of both teams.

However, that game featured a standout showing from future lottery pick Isaiah Collier, who is out for this game and his absence has been a big reason why the Trojans have fallen off in a big way.

The Trojans' lone true road win this season was a win at Alabama State, which is 292nd in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rating. Other than that, the team is 0-6 on the road, losing all but one game by double digits.

The team is in Berkley on Wednesday night, a team that is far better than its metrics state.

Cal has been snake-bitten by a handful of tight losses, losing four PAC-12 games by single digits (the other two were blowout losses to top team Arizona), and can put USC's leaky defense in the pick-and-roll and generate easy buckets inside. The Golden Bears are 73rd in points per possession per ShotQuality in ball screen action and 16th in points off of screens. Further, the team is due a five percent jump in field goal percentage at the rim.

When looking at USC's defense that has spiraled in PAC-12 play, the team has done a good job at the rim, holding teams to 52% shooting with its size inside. However, SQ believes the team is due north of a four percent rise in field goal percentage at the cup, and the team is outside the top half of the country in points allowed per possession, per SQ.

USC got its bounce back win against Oregon State at home, but its road woes are set to continue at Cal.