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USC vs. Cal Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 9

Will the Trojans slide continue?

By Reed Wallach

Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) runs the ball in
Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) runs the ball in / Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
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USC has lost two straight games, ejecting itself from the College Football Playoff conversation around reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams.

The team's lofty goals this season are all but finished as the team heads on the road to face Cal, who is off of its BYE week and will try to make a last push at bowl eligibility. After playing Notre Dame and USC in primetime, high-leverage games, will the Trojans get up for this game amidst questions about the team's goals for the rest of the season?

Here's everything you need to know for this PAC-12 matchup:

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USC vs. Cal Odds, Spread and Total

Cal vs. USC Betting Trends

  • USC is 2-6 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Cal is 2-5 ATS this season
  • USC hasn't covered in PAC-12 play this season
  • USC is 7-1 to the OVER this season
  • Cal has gone OVER in three of four games as an underdog

USC vs. Cal How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, October 28th
  • Game Time: 4:00 PM EST
  • Venue: California Memorial Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): PAC-12 Network
  • USC Record: 6-2
  • Cal Record: 3-4

USC vs. Cal Key Players to Watch

USC

Caleb Williams: Williams is as gifted as any player in the sport, but his numbers have dropped against elite competition, passing for 256 yards last week against Utah after only 199 against Notre Dame. Cal's defense is middling, but a step down in class, right around the national average in EPA/Pass.

Cal

Jaydn Ott: The Golden Bears running back may be in for a big outing on Saturday for the Bears' top 10 rush offense in terms of EPA/Rush. The Trojans are outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush and tackling grade, per Pro Football Focus, and may struggle to get a push against the Cal offensive line that is top 10 in line yards. Ott is averaging nearly six yards per carry with five touchdowns this season.

USC vs. Cal Prediction and Pick

Keep an eye on the developing situation around USC. The team didn't make its players available post-game after the last-second Utah loss, the team's second in a row, and head coach Lincoln Riley missed his weekly radio appearance due to being "sick." With the team's postseason hopes all but gone, the team may begin to see a serious drop in play.

As noted in my early week betting deep dive: USC is on "quit watch."

USC's season is over and it hasn't covered a PAC-12 game yet. The team has been rightfully downgraded, but I'm not sure we have found the bottom yet as a team full of future NFL players may begin to think about respective futures and let go of the rope on the remaining handful of games.

The Trojans are outside the top 100 in EPA/Play and tackling this season and have allowed 28 or more in five straight games, including three games of 40 or more.

While Cal is far from an elite PAC-12 club, the team rallied to lose 41-35 on the road last year against USC and is top 50 in explosive rush and pass defense this season, making it difficult for the Trojans to get easy scores.

Further, it's worth noting the Trojans grueling schedule, which included a cross-country trip to Notre Dame two weeks ago, an emotional and taxing game against Utah, and PAC-12 favorite Washington coming to Southern California next weekend. Cal may be frisky off the bye with an outside shot at bowl eligibility on the line.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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