USC vs Oregon Prediction and Odds (Back Trojans To Exact Revenge Over Inconsistent Ducks)
By Joe Summers
After an impressive win over UCLA, the 18-10 Oregon Ducks take on the 24-4 #16 USC Trojans at 7:00 PM PST tonight as they try to bolster their NCAA tournament resume.
The Ducks beat the Trojans 79-69 on the road last month but have covered the spread just twice in their last seven games. USC, meanwhile, has won five straight but covered only once in those wins. Does the value lie with the Trojans as road underdogs or will Oregon get the best of them once again?
Let's take a look at the odds via WynnBET:
USC vs Oregon Odds, Spread and Total
Spread
- USC +4.5 (-110)
- Oregon -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- USC: +150
- Oregon: -180
Total:
- 139 (Over -110/Under -110)
USC vs Oregon Prediction and Pick
Look, I know the Ducks beat USC by 10 and I know the Trojans are just 2-7 against the spread (ATS) over their last nine, but this line is way too big. Just last month Oregon was 6-point underdogs to this same Trojans squad, and now they're 4.5-point favorites? That's a wild overreaction and I'm going to take advantage of the value.
The Ducks shot 10/21 from beyond the arc in that first matchup, well above their season average of 34.3%. We can expect regression today from a team that is 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and hasn't covered the spread once in their last five as a favorite.
USC has excelled in these spots this season, going 6-3 ATS in their last nine on the road and 4-0 ATS as an underdog. They won three of those games as an underdog outright and I think they have a good shot to win a fourth today. The Trojans have a significant rebounding advantage and with their 2nd-best defensive 2-point shooting percentage, they should make life difficult for Oregon inside.
Unless the Ducks have another outlier shooting performance, this spread is way too high. This is the same Oregon team that just lost by 24 to Arizona State as a favorite and they're way too inconsistent to trust in this kind of spot.
Give me the Trojans to cover and send Oregon to 11-18 ATS on the year.
Pick: USC +4.5 (-110)