Betsided

USC vs. Oregon Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 11

By Reed Wallach

Nov 4, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws the ball during the
Nov 4, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws the ball during the / Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

Bo Nix has thrust himself into the Heisman Trophy mix, now the second choice to win the award.

Nix will match up against last year's winner in Caleb Williams and the spiraling USC Trojans, who have lost three of four games and fired its defensive coordinator Alex Grinch last week. The Trojans' defense has been one of the worst units in the PAC-12 this season and is likely going to struggle against one of the most efficient offenses in the country on Saturday.

Can Williams conjure up one more big-time performance and spoil the Ducks College Football Playoff hopes? Oddsmakers aren't counting on it but with a total in the 70's, they are expecting points.

Here's how I'm eyeing this PAC-12 showdown. If you are looking to bet it I suggest doing it at Caesars Sportsbook, which matches all new users' first bet up to $1,000!

USC vs. Oregon Odds, Spread and Total

Oregon vs. USC Betting Trends

  • Oregon is 7-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • USC is 2-8 ATS this season
  • USC is 0-2 ATS as an underdog this season
  • USC has gone OVER in nine of 10 games this season

USC vs. Oregon How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, November 11th
  • Game Time: 10:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Autzen Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): FOX
  • USC Record: 7-3
  • Oregon Record: 8-1

USC vs. Oregon Key Players to Watch

USC

Caleb Williams: While USC's record is worse than it was last year when it was in the PAC-12 title game, Williams is still putting up gaudy numbers, passing for 2,958 yards with 28 passing touchdowns and four interceptions while adding another 10 on the ground. Williams has done all he can, but USC's defense has allowed 48, 34, and 52 points in its three losses this season.

Oregon

Bo Nix: Nix is firmly in the mix for the Heisman, anchoring an incredibly efficient offense with a completion percentage of 78% with 25 passing touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging north of 10 yards per attempt. The Ducks are a top-five offense, and Nix is a big reason why.

USC vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

Want to bet every Top 25 game in Week 11? You can find out who I picked with here!

The Trojans finally pulled the plug on Alex Grinch as defensive coordinator after allowing 52 points to Washington, and while Grinch had his flaws, the defense simply lacks upside, 121st in EPA/Play this season.

As great as USC's offense has been, the defense has been just as bad, and that'll come to light against Oregon, who is No. 1 in the nation in terms of success rate and is backed up by a defense that is top 20 in both success rate and EPA/Play on defense.

I'm wary of trusting Oregon to get a cover home against USC's offense, one that can keep pace with Nix and the Ducks' offense, ranking 10th in success rate and still have the most talented quarterback in the sport, so instead I'll go for the over.

USC has been soaring over totals all season long, going over in nine of 10 games, and while Oregon's defense presents plenty of upside, the team has been prone to getting into high-scoring affairs against explosive offenses like Texas Tech (71 points) and Washington (69 points).

I believe Oregon can win comfortably, but the over is my preferred side.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

Home/NCAAF Picks