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USC vs UCLA Prediction and Odds (Back Trojans in Low-Scoring Affair)

By Joe Summers

Johnny Juzang hopes to lead the Bruins to revenge as they host USC tonight
Johnny Juzang hopes to lead the Bruins to revenge as they host USC tonight / Jayne Kamin-Oncea/GettyImages
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The 25-5 #16 USC Trojans had a six-game winning streak snapped in a 20-point loss to Arizona and hope to get back in the win column as they take on the 22-6 #17 UCLA Bruins tonight at 7:00 PM PST.

USC got the best of the Bruins last month in a 67-64 home victory and will try for a similar result against a UCLA squad that has won and covered the spread in six of seven.

The Bruins are 13-1 at home, but the Trojans are 9-2 on the road. In a matchup of two strong teams looking to solidify NCAA Tournament seeding, where does the value lie?

Let's check out the odds, courtesy of WynnBET:

USC vs UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • USC +8 (-110)
  • UCLA -8 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • USC: +325
  • UCLA: -375

Total:

  • 136 (Over -110/Under -110)

USC vs UCLA Prediction and Pick

The Trojans have won five straight against the Bruins but come into this one on a bit of a skid against the spread (ATS). They've won eight of 10 but are just 3-8 ATS over their past 11. UCLA, meanwhile, has covered in six straight at home and is downright dominant at Pauley Pavilion.

But this line is huge and I think a bit disrespectful to USC. Sure, they got trounced by Arizona in their last game, but when the Wildcats play their best game they can do that to anyone so I'm not overly concerned. The Trojans have been excellent in these spots all season, going 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year and winning four of those games outright.

USC has the 2nd-best two-point defense in the country and held UCLA to 30.2% shooting in the first matchup. The Bruins should shoot better, but the length and versatility of the Trojans should still frustrate them.

UCLA should win, but these are two slow-paced squads with a history of close, low-scoring games against each other. Each of their last five matchups have gone under and it's difficult to cover a large spread in that kind of game.

I'm taking the Trojans +8 in what I think will be a competitive game, but I'll also be taking the under. The under is 4-1-1 in USC's last five as an underdog and 9-5 in their road games this year. In that first game, the Trojans shot 44.4% from beyond the arc, well above their season average of 35.2%, and the game still went under.

These teams are familiar with each other and we should see a hotly-contested game until the final whistle.

Pick: USC +8 (-110) and under 136 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.