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USC vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 12

By Reed Wallach

Nov 5, 2022; Tempe, Arizona, USA; UCLA Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (1) hurdles
Nov 5, 2022; Tempe, Arizona, USA; UCLA Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (1) hurdles / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
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UCLA's faint College Football Playoff hopes ended on Saturday, losing as 20-point favorites to Arizona.

However, the Bruins are still live for the PAC-12 Championship and can spoil their cross-town rival USC's CFP bid with a win on Saturday. There will be plenty of fireworks in this game with a total in the 70's and two electric quarterbacks with UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson facing off against USC's Caleb Williams.

Here's our full breakdown of this marquee matchup in Los Angeles on Saturday night:

USC vs. UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

USC vs. UCLA Betting Trends

  • Each team is 6-4 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • UCLA is 2-1 ATS as underdogs this season
  • Each teams has gone OVER in seven of 10 games
  • UCLA has gone OVER in all three games as an underdog

USC vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

We discussed this game at length on this week's Early Reed, which you can check out below:

I make UCLA a small favorite in this game, so even though this number crashed through the key number of three, there's still value on the Bruins. The loss to loss Arizona last week as 20-point favorites created a valuable bet this week as the Bruins have edges on the ground to expose this USC defense.

The Trojans are outside the top 100 in explosive rush rate and will go against the best rush offense in the country in terms of yards per carry (6.24). The blend of quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet should make life difficult for a USC defense outside the top 100 in success rate on the year.

While the Bruins defense is also prone to being gashed, the Trojans enter this game banged up with running back Travis Dye set to miss the remainder of the season. USC is an offense that doesn't rely on chunk plays to score, rather Dye and the ground game to put them in third and managable, but without their trusty running back, Caleb Williams will have to shoulder more of the burden for this Trojans offense.

This total is in the mid-70's for good reason, there won't be many stops in this one, but I think UCLA is more likely to slow down this methodical USC offense that is down a key contributor just enough to win this game outright. However, with a small moneyline and a high total, I'll take the two points in a game that could be decided in the final seconds with a two-point conversion, a la USC vs. Utah earlier this season.

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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