Utah Jazz Will Slow Down Damian Lillard Tonight
By Peter Dewey
Damian Lillard has scored 30 or more points in his last five games and the Blazers have soared into the No. 5 spot in the Western Conference.
Coincidence? I think not.
The Blazers are 4-1 over Lillard’s hot stretch, but things will get much tougher over the team’s final three games. The Blazers close this season against the Utah Jazz (No. 1 in the West), the Phoenix Suns (No. 2 in the West) and the Denver Nuggets (No. 4 in the West). With just one game separating the Blazers from the play-in tournament, every one of these matchups will be crucial to avoiding a tumble in the standings.
Lillard has a player prop projection of 28.5 points against Utah on Wednesday with the over (-104) a slight underdog to the under (-116). Dame averages 28.7 points per game on the season, and with his recent stretch of games this should be a no brainer right? Wrong.
Lillard may be hot, but Utah has been great against him this season. In his two previous matchups with the Jazz, Lillard shot just 4-for-12 (nine points) and 8-for-21 (23 points). The Blazers lost both games by double figures, but at least they won’t have to face Donovan Mitchell on Wednesday.
It’s a tough prop (Vegas never makes it easy) since Lillard and the Blazers are surging right now. The Jazz did give up 36 points to Steph Curry on Monday, although he shot 11-for-25 from the field and 3-for-13 from 3.
Lillard has taken over 20 shots just two times in his last nine contests. Somehow, Khyri Thomas and K.J. Martin (Houston is throwing anyone and everyone out there) scored 27 points against Utah two games ago, and Michael Porter Jr. scored 31 points in the Nuggets’ recent loss to the Jazz.
Those performances are promising for Lillard’s chances to hit the over, but I just don’t see him continuing that 30-point streak tonight. Utah would put a stranglehold on the No. 1 seed with a win, and I think this game may feature more playoff-like intensity (and defense) that holds Dame just short of that 28.5-point projection.