Utah State vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 1 (Aggies Undervalued)

You could copy/paste this sentence pretty much every year for the last decade, but the No. 1-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide open their season as massive favorites with lofty goals of an undefeated record and National Championship.

Bryce Young and Will Anderson are perhaps the two best offensive and defensive players in the country, and the Crimson Tide are anxious to avenge last year's loss to Georgia in the national title game. Betting on Alabama's failure under Nick Saban will leave you broke quickly, and it's no wonder the Tide sit as heavy favorites (+180) at WynnBET Sportsbook to win a seventh championship since 2009.

That being said, the Utah State Aggies are no pushover, having covered the spread in six of their last eight games. Logan Bonner threw three touchdown passes in a win over UConn in Week 0, and Calvin Tyler Jr. added 161 yards on the ground.

Can the Aggies cover as massive underdogs or will Alabama's seemingly inevitable title run open in dramatic fashion?

To find the betting value in this Utah State vs Alabama matchup, here are the odds from WynnBET:

Utah State vs Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Utah State vs Alabama Betting Trends

Utah State

• 6-2 against the spread (ATS) last eight games

• 5-2 outright last seven games as underdogs

• OVER is 3-0 last three games as road underdogs

Alabama

• 6-4 ATS last 10 games

• 11-3 ATS last 14 home games

• UNDER is 7-4-1 last 12 games as favorites

Utah State vs Alabama Prediction and Pick

Utah State wasn't overly impressive in last week's 31-20 win over Connecticut, falling behind 14-0 before utilizing a 24-point second quarter to notch a victory. You can look at this performance one of two ways.

You could say the Aggies shouldn't have fallen behind to an inferior team and will get smacked by the Crimson Tide.

Or you could say Utah State outscored UConn 31-6 after the first quarter and just needed to shake off the rust from a long offseason.

I think the true answer lies somewhere in the middle. Running back Calvin Tyler Jr. can really play. He rushed for 884 yards last season and already looks on his way to 1,000 yards after wracking up 161 against the Huskies.

I liked what I saw from quarterback Logan Bonner as well. After throwing for 3,628 yards and 36 touchdowns last year, he looked decisive in an efficient outing. Alabama has all-world contributors on both sides of the ball, but there's a value in the Aggies getting a tune-up game.

Everyone expects the Crimson Tide to lay waste to the college football landscape in a dominant season, but that's exactly why this number is so large. Of course Alabama will win by a million points, right?

Not so fast. Utah State consistently covers the spread as underdogs, and don't sleep on a backdoor cover once the game is out of reach. Take the Aggies to score just enough to stay within the number.

Pick: Utah State +41.0 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.