Utah State vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament Second Round

Purdue avoided another loss in the first round by blowing out Grambling State, 78-50, setting up a second round matchup against Utah State. 

The Boilermakers were lightly challenged by Grambling State and is a double digit favorite again against Mountain West foe Utah State, who had its own blowout win against TCU in the first round. However, this is a serious step up in class, can the Aggies hang with Zach Edey and the Boilermakers? 

Here’s how I’m betting this second round matchup:

Utah State vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Purdue vs. Utah State Betting Trends

• Utah State is 1-5 against the spread (ATS) this season as an underdog
• Purdue is 3-7 ATS over the last 10 games
• Utah State has gone OVER in 20 of 33 games this season
• Purdue has gone OVER in 22 of 33 games this season

Utah State vs. Purdue How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 24
• Game Time: 2:40 PM EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• [Away Team] Record: 28-6
• [Home Team] Record: 30-4

Utah State vs. Purdue Key Players to Watch

Utah State

Great Osobor: Osobor attracted a ton of attention in the win against TCU, barreling towards the rim at will to get his 13 points on 6-of-9 shooting while also dishing out four assists and grabbing seven rebounds. It’s a different look against Zach Edey, but Osobor has shown that his mobility can give teams fits. 

Purdue

Zach Edey: Edey destroyed an undersized Grambling team, scoring 30 points and grabbing 21 rebounds and while Utah State has more size, it's incredibly weak on the interior, 286th in two-point field goal percentage. Edey should have another dominant effort on Sunday.

Utah State vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

I struggle to see Utah State keeping up in this one. 

The Aggies are reliant around Osobor’s gravity around the post to generate its offense, but the team can have Edey check him without much help given he’s bolstering a massive size advantage at 7’4” against the 6’8” Osobor. 

Meanwhile, Utah State’s 3-point shooting will catch up with them, 254th in the country in three-point percentage. The Boilermakers won’t turn you over, but the team plays a disciplined defense with Edey protecting the rim, and this Utah State team is reliant on finishing inside. 

On the other side, Utah State’s defense stands little chance against Edey. The Boilermakers are 21st in points per possession on post ups according to ShotQuality on a top five frequency. Utah State is 293rd defending this sort of action, per SQ. 

Further, the Aggies three-point defense is ripe with regression, owed a five percent 3-point rise after holding teams to about 29% during the year. 

Utah State is out-matched here. Lay it with the Boilermakers. 

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