Utah State vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 3

Jan 6, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs guard Reese Waters (14) dribbles the
Jan 6, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs guard Reese Waters (14) dribbles the / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Two Mountain West power houses meet in San Diego on Saturday afternoon.

Two of the best big men in the country will do battle when Great Osobor leads Utah State into San Diego State to face Jaedon LeDee and the Aztecs, who will try to score a signature home victory. How should we bet this marquee matchup in the MWC?

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Utah State vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread and Total

San Diego State vs. Utah State Betting Trends

  • Utah State is 11-7-1 against the spread (ATS) this season against Division 1 competition
  • San Diego State is 7-12 ATS this season against Division 1 competition
  • Utah State is 1-2 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Utah State has gone OVER in 12 of 19 games this season against Division 1 competition

Utah State vs. San Diego State How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, February 3rd
  • Game Time: 3:30 M EST
  • Venue: Vejas Arena at Aztec Bowl
  • How to Watch (TV): FOX
  • Utah State Record: 19-2
  • San Diego State Record: 16-5

Utah State vs. San Diego State Key Players to Watch

Utah State

Great Osobor: The Montana State transfer has been outstanding in the featured role with the Aggies, averaging over 19 points per game and nearly 10 rebounds while shooting almost 60% from the field. Can he find answers against an elite SDSU interior defense?

San Diego State

Jaedon LeDee: LeDee has been outstanding in a featured role with SDSU this season, averaging over 20 points per gam while shooting almost 56% from the field while doing most of his work around the rim. Utah State's defense is vulnerable on the inside, can LeDee cook in this marquee matchup?

Utah State vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick

This is a massive game with Mountain West title implications with Utah State entering at 7-1 in league play, but a considerable underdog against the Aztecs, who are 5-3 in conference games. San Diego State is off a loss earlier this week at Colorado State, but this matchup suits the team quite well at home.

Utah State does most of its damage with Osobor on the inside, tops in MWC in two-point percentage, but with LeDee and San Diego State's interior defense ranking second in Mountain West two-point percentage allowed, I believe the team can force Utah State to shoot from the perimeter, which will stunt the team's offensive game plan. The Aggies are bottom half of the conference in three-point percentage and SDSU is top 100 in open three rate, per ShotQuality.

On the other, it'll be the opposite for SDSU, who can feast inside on Utah State's poor interior defense. The Aggies are 268th in two-point field goal percentage allowed, and also due a ton of three-point regression. The Aggies are holding teams to the lowest MWC 3P% at 27%. It's somewhat fraudulent as well, SQ deems Utah State is due a five percent increase in opponent three-point percentage.

While San Diego State isn't known for it's three-point prowess, the team is far better than what it's shown in conference play, shooting a Mountain West worst 29% from beyond the arc. Can this be an inflection point for both offense and defense?

It's possible.

With this number blown out north of two possessions, I'm going to target San Diego State's offense to show up in a big way at home and go over its team total.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!