Utah vs. USC Prediction and Odds for Pac 12 Championship Game (Trojans Overvalued)

Nov 26, 2022; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Utah Utes running back Ja'Quinden Jackson (3) celebrates his
Nov 26, 2022; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Utah Utes running back Ja'Quinden Jackson (3) celebrates his / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The PAC-12 Championship is a rematch of one of the most thrilling games of the season.

Utah got some help in the final week of the regular season to get back into the PAC-12 Championship Game to face College Football Playoff hopeful USC that has overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy Caleb Williams at quarterback.

These two played in Salt Lake City during the middle of the season that went down to the final seconds with a Cam Rising two-point conversion proving to be the difference.

How will the rematch go down in Las Vegas with USC playing for not only revenge, but a shot at the CFP?

Here are the odds and our best bet:

Utah vs. USC Odds, Spread and Total

Utah vs. USC Betting Trends

  • Utah closed as a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 65.5 in the prior meeting
  • Utah has been an underdog once this season, and didn't cover
  • USC is 8-4 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • USC has gone OVER in nine of 12 games this season

Utah vs. USC Prediction and Pick

The first meeting was a shootout as neither defense could stop the opposition. USC checked in with a 54% success rate (94th percentile this season) and an EPA/Play of .38 (96th percentile) on offense while the Utes posted marks of 57% (97th percentile) and an EPA/Play of .47 (98th percentile).

It was a clinic that was decided in the final minute on one play. The game could be looked at as a coin flip, so why has this line shifted from Utah as a favorite of over a field goal to USC a favorite of a field goal on a neutral field?

The Trojans don't have Travis Dye anymore, who had 76 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries and 43 receiving yards in the first meeting, and the USC defense continues to thrive off of a turnovers. While Caleb Williams is a special talent, the Trojans defense is going to hold them back in this one.

USC is +22 in turnover margin this season, +8 to the next best team in the country (Duke). To show how big of a difference that is, that difference is the same between Duke and the 29th best team in terms of turnover margin.

Utah is pretty good in this department, +7 on the year, and quarterback Cameron Rising is typically protective of the rock. A few bad bounces against Oregon led to a three interception night, but he only has seven on the year. He also carved up this USC defense to the tune of 415 passing yards, five total touchdowns and a 66.7% completion percentage.

The USC defense remains poor, 102 in defensive line yards, 110th in red zone touchdown percentage and 126th in success rate. The Utes offense can go blow-for-blow with the Trojans, 20th in yards per play, seventh in line yards and 10th in red zone touchdown percentage, that I don't see how either team can be laying more than a field goal.

Take the points and don't be surprised if Utah makes it two in a row over USC.

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.