Valero Texas Open Picks and Betting Preview (Target Canadians at TPC San Antonio)
As is tradition, the PGA Tour heads to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open in the final week before The Masters.
Many of the top golfers competing this week will use the Texas Open as a final warm up before heading to Augusta next week, while lower ranked golfers will have one final chance to qualify for the first Major of the year with a win.
Let's start off by looking at the top 10 odds via WynnBET to win this year's edition of the Valero Texas Open.
Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open
- Rory McIlroy +750
- Jordan Spieth +1200
- Corey Conners +1600
- Hideki Matsuyama +1800
- Abraham Ancer +2000
- Bryson DeChambeau +2500
- Gary Woodland +2800
- Adam Hadwin +3300
- Keegan Bradley +3300
- Maverick McNealy +3300
How to Handicap TPC San Antonio
The thing that sticks out when looking at TPC San Antonio, is the quantity and difficulty of the bunkers scattered throughout the course. The track boasts some of the toughest bunkers to get up and down from, so short game, especially sad save percentage, will prove invaluable this week.
On top of that, stay away from bad drivers of the golf ball. Not only are there a plethora of fairway bunkers, but at 7,400 yards long, shorter hitters are at an immediate disadvantage.
Here are my five key stats you should consider before placing your bets.
5 Key Stats for the Valero Texas Open
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Sand Save Percentage
- Strokes Gained: Putting
Valero Texas Open Picks
Top 20: Matthias Schwab
Matthias Schwab is far down the odds list to win the event at +11000 at WynnBET, and while I'm not brave enough to bet on him to win outright, a top 20 finish seems like a solid bet to make. This will be his debut at the event, but a lot of his numbers show that he should be a good fit for the course.
He ranks 33rd in total strokes gained this season, but most importantly he ranks 42nd in strokes gained: around-the-green, 14th in sand save percentage, and 16th in strokes gained: putting. If a strong short game is what's most important at this course, than you should target Schwab in one form or another.
Top 10: Charley Hoffman
Charley Hoffman has had a rough season so far, there's no doubt about that.
But sometimes you just have to bet on a guy who continuously does well at a course year after year. Dating back to his debut at the tournament in 2010, he has five top five finishes including a win in 2016. He also has two 11th place finishes and two 13th place finishes, and he's finished second in back-to-back years. He's an auto-bet at TPC San Antonio no matter his form.
Top 5: Adam Hadwin
You might be surprised to see Adam Hadwin's name eighth on the odds list to win it all, but it's for good reason. He's been sneaky good this season, and he's been in good form with a T9 finish at the Players Championship and a T7 at the Valspar Championship.
He's 23rd in total strokes gained this season, and most notably, is one of the best bunker players on Tour, ranking fourth in sand save percentage. That's going to be huge at TPC San Antonio.
Winner: Corey Conners +1600
I'm sorry that I'm addicted to betting on Corey Conners, but I just can't quit him.
He enters this week in great form, finishing in third place at last week's WGC Match Play event, and now he's returning to a course he's had a ton of success at. His only career win on the PGA Tour came at this event back in 2019, and his other two starts here he finished 14th and 26th.
Per DataGolf, Conners has gained the most strokes per round in the field at TPC San Antonio, averaging +2.19. I'm hoping last week's third place finish will propel him into his second career win at the Valero Texas Open.
You can track Iain's bets and record on BetStamp here.