Valero Texas Open Power Rankings: The 10 Best Golfers at TPC San Antonio

Last week, Scottie Scheffler’s missed four-footer kept us off the board, and Aaron Rai had his chances too but ultimately finished two behind tied for seventh.

This week, the split Texas Swing moves to San Antonio for the last tune up before next week’s Masters. The TPC at San Antonio Oaks Course hosts the Valero Texas Open. 

There are some big names playing in the Masters warm-up including the top eight favorites (McIlroy +1000, Aberg +1200, Matsuyama +1800, Spieth +2000, Conners +2200, Morikawa +2500, Homa +2500, and Fitzpatrick +2800). We’ve got half of them plus some dark horses rounding out this week’s card.

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The Valero Texas Open Power Rankings

1. Ludvig Aberg +1200

Aberg took the week off after an eighth-place finish at The Players. That finish gave him five straight Top 25 finishes including a second at Pebble Beach. His Masters odds currently sit at +2500. Kiss that goodbye if he wins this week, and he is my pick to win.

Aberg actually played in this event twice as an amateur, so he does have course familiarity (T-61 last year and a missed cut in 2022). Don’t forget, he went to Texas Tech down the road in Lubbock. His stats are well-rounded. He ranks 13th in total strokes gained, 25th in total driving, 29th in GIR, 29th in scrambling, and 17th in scoring average.

2. Corey Conners +2200

This week’s horse for course has to be Conners. Not only is he the defending champion, but he also won in 2019 and has a T-14 in 2021. Form-wise, he finished T-13 and T-18 in his last two events at The Players and at the API. 

Ball-striking Corey is ranked 15th in strokes gained off the tee, sixth in strokes gained approaching the green, second in GIR, and 33rd in scoring average.

3. Hideki Matsuyama +1800

Matsuyama is another one to watch for The Masters. His odds there are currently +2800 and like Aberg, if he contends this week those odds are long gone. He comes into this tournament on form having finished sixth at The Players, T-12 at the API, a win at The Genesis, and a T-22 in Phoenix.

His best finish at Valero was last year with a T-15. Statistically, Matsuyama ranks 15th in total strokes gained, 16th in GIR, 19th in scrambling, and 29th in scoring average. 

4. Billy Horschel +3300

Who would have figured Billy Ho would be the ninth favorite this week in terms of odds? I expected his usual 50+ odds to one, but the word is out on my fellow Gator. Horschel is coming off a final round 64 last week to finish T-7. He had two other Top 12s with a missed cut at The Players interrupting that streak. 

He’s had some success at The Valero although it has been a while (two third place finishes in 2015 and 2013). Horschel ranks an impressive sixth in total strokes gained, seventh in GIR, and 14th in strokes gained putting.

5. Martin Laird +15000

Why is a guy with those odds ranked so high on our list? That’s a fair question. His game has certainly come around with back-to-back Top 10s at The Cognizant and at Puerto Rico. Last week he finished T-31. 

He is also a former winner here having won in 2013 and also owns two other T20 finishes here.  He’s shown the ability to get the ball into the hole. He ranks 11th in strokes gained around the green, fifth in sand saves, 39th in strokes gained putting.

6. Jordan Spieth +2000

We are all still waiting for Spieth to find his game consistently over four rounds. Cut, cut, T-30, and DQ are not exactly stellar finishes for the former Texas Longhorn star. Perhaps a comfortable course will get him back on track. 

He won here in 2021 and finished second in 2015. He ranks 12th in total strokes gained, and despite all the complaints about his putting, he ranks sixth in strokes gained putting, third in putting average, and fifth in birdie average. 

7. Andrew Novak +10000

Prior to last week’s T-53, Novak had four out of five Top 20 finishes. His middle rounds of 71-73 derailed his tournament last week. He started and finished well with 68-67. Last year at the TPC San Antonio, he finished T-9. 

He currently ranks 17th in total strokes gained, 18th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 16th in strokes gained approaching the green, and 31st in adjusted scoring average.

8. Ryan Moore +12500

For the first six tournaments of the year, the best Moore could produce was a T-60 in Mexico. But after a good start at The Players, he has turned it around. He finished T-5 at the Valspar and last week finished strong with 66-69 to finish T-31. He has three Top 10 finishes in this event including a third in 2019.

Moore ranks second on tour in driving accuracy, 12th in strokes gained tee-to-green, fourth in strokes gained approaching the green, a decent 49th in GIR, and 26th in proximity to the hole. Those are some favorable odds for a guy with those stats and recent form.

9. Ben An +3300

Ben An is reaching the ‘no-bet’ list. Maybe I’m still mad at him missing a five-foot putt to lose our +4000 bet.  However, I’m giving him another shot. He has two Top 10s here including a T-6 last year.  He had a disappointing Players missing the cut after three straight Top 25s including a T-8 at the API.

An ranks 22nd in total strokes gained, 19th in strokes gained off-the-tee, 25th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 13th in driving distance, first in total driving efficiency but only 79th in strokes gained putting.

10. Charley Hoffman +15000

I’m throwing in another longshot. Hoffman has had great success in this event. He won in 2016, finished second in 2019, and has three other Top 15 finishes. Hoffman hasn’t had any luck since his rough playoff loss to Nick Taylor at the WM Phoenix Open. Since then, his best finish is a T-50 at The Genesis.

If you reviewed his stats, you might say he hasn’t got a chance; however, he does have 10 top 40 rankings on approaches to the green from various yardages. He ranks 18th in final scoring average.  Perhaps he can put one together this week.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.