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Valspar Championship Picks and Predictions (Expect a Justin Thomas Bounce Back)

Breaking down everything you need to know to bet on this week's PGA Tour event, the Valspar Championship at Copperhead Course, including the three best bets to win.

By Iain MacMillan

Justin Thomas plays his shot from the 16th tee during the first round of The Players Championship
Justin Thomas plays his shot from the 16th tee during the first round of The Players Championship / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA
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Scottie Scheffler has further cemented his status as the best golfer on the planet by winning the second-straight PGA Tour event while also successfully defending his Players Championship.

This week, the PGA Tour wraps up its Florida Swing with the Valspar Championship at Copperhead course. Scheffler isn't in the field this week which gives a chance for the rest of the golfers competing to actually get a win.

Let's dive into the tournament and I'll break down my three best outright bets to win.

If you want to bet on the Valspar Championship, be sure to click the link below to sign up for an account at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you do, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager.

Valspar Championship odds

Valspar Championship how to watch

  • Thursday: 2 pm - 6 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Friday: 2 pm - 6 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday: 1 pm - 3 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3-6 pm EST (NBC)
  • Sunday: 1 pm - 3 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3-6 pm EST (NBC)

Valspar Championship purse

  • Date: Thursday, March 21 - Sunday, March 24
  • Purse: $8.4 million ($1.512 million winner's share)
  • Defending champion: Taylor Moore

Valspar Championship notable golfers

Xander Schauffele: Fresh off his runner-up finish at The Players Championship, Xander Schauffele enters this week's event as the betting favorite. He's been playing some great golf this season and now he returns to an event where he finished 12th the only time he competed here back in 2022.

Sam Burns: If there's one "horse for the course" this week, it's Sam Burns, who won this event in back-to-back years in 2021 and 2022 and then followed it up with a 6th place finish last year. He's not in great form, finishing 45th and 30th the last two events, but he should feel confident this week.

Valspar Championship picks

Justin Thomas +1400

Justin Thomas missed the cut last week but let's dive into his two rounds a little bit further. If you do, you'll see that it was due to an uncharacteristically horrible week with his short game. In fact, he led the entire field in strokes gained: approach at +2.51 per round. That's the best week he's had with his irons since the WGC Workday Championship back in February of 2021.

Now, he gets to palce in a weak field at an event where he's finished inside the top 10 in each of the past two years. If he can keep his irons hot and figure out his short game, he's going to be a strong candidate to win this week.

Brian Harman +2200

In my opinion, Brian Harman is the no-brainer bet of the week. Copperhead Course is one of the few courses on the PGA Tour's schedule where short hitters aren't at a significant disadvantage and there's no better short-hitter than Harman, especially given his recent form. He finished T2 at The Players last week and 12th the week before. His irons have been completely dialed in as well, gaining +2.48 strokes with his approach game per round.

As a cherry on top, he has a fifth place finish here two seasons ago. So, we have a great course fit, fantastic recent form, and a solid course history. That checks all three boxes we're looking for when betting a winner.

I'll absolutely bet on Harman at +2200.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500

We're sticking to a theme here. Justin Thomas led the field last week in strokes gained: approach, Brian Harman finished second, and now we're also betting on the golfer who ranked third in that stat, Christiaan Bezuidenhout. He's another golfer very similar to Harman in that he's a shorter hitter that's great around on the greens and whose iron play has improved drastically of late.

He's also off a T13 finish last week, but he doesn't have the course history here that some other golfers do. His only start at the Valspar resulted in a 62nd place finish in 2022.

Still, he has a great course fit and is in solid form ahead of this week. If you're looking for a dark horse in the mid-range of the odds list, Bezuidenhout is your guy.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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