Allow me to pat myself on the back for a moment. Last week, I cashed my outright pick, top 10, and top 20 bet at The Players Championship. I was a Collin Morikawa top 5 finish away from a clean sweep.
Can I put on a repeat performance for the Valspar Championship this week? I doubt it, but I'm going to try. Also, if you want more picks and best bets for this week's event, check out my friend Cody Williams' best bets for the tournament over on FanSided.
Alright, let's dive into the odds to win the event, and then I'll break down my best bets for the week.
Odds to win the Valspar Championship
Valspar Championship best bet to win
Denny McCarthy +3300
In elevated events, I'll stick to betting on the top few guys on the odds list. In these non-elevated tournaments, it's time to get a shot at someone further down the odds list. That's what I'm going to do this week, especially because I don't trust any of the top names this week. All have been in bad for and/or are overvalued from a betting standpoint.
Meanwhile, Denny McCarthy has a 9th place finish here back in 2019 and has shown some promising aspects to his game. He has three finished of T14 or better in his last five starts, he's one of the better putters in the field, and his approach game is starting to come along.
I like his value at 33/1 this week.
Valspar Championship Top 10 odds
Valspar Championship Top 10 bet
Brandon Wu +400
Brandon Wu, much like Denny McCarthy has been in great form as of late, finishing T19 or better in three of his last five starts. A great sign last week was that he gained +1.88 strokes with his putter, by far his best performance over the last year.
The issue that while his approach game has been strong, it failed him at TPC Sawgrass. If he can have a week where both his irons and his putter get hot at the same time, watch out.
The 26-year old finished in 33rd at this event last season, so he does have some experience it Innisbrook Resort.
Valspar Championship Top 20 odds
Valspar Championship Top 20 bet
Victor Perez +225
You may not have heard too much of Victor Perez, but that's because he's quietly been killing it over on the DP World Tour. His last four starts over there have finish; T12, WIN, T28, T13.
Now, he's coming over to a PGA Tour event that's boasting a relatively weak field, and he's ready to do some damage. He has gained strokes putting in I've straight starts, and he's been fantastic off the tee over this recent stretch.
There's nothing I love more than finding a European golfer that has value when they compete state side, and this week that golfer for me is going to be Perez from France.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.