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Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Prediction and Odds in SEC Tournament Quarterfinals (Commodores To Hang Around)

By Joe Summers

Vanderbilt is on fire and hopes to keep their season alive against Kentucky in the SEC Tournament Quarterfinals today
Vanderbilt is on fire and hopes to keep their season alive against Kentucky in the SEC Tournament Quarterfinals today / Andy Lyons/GettyImages
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After a comeback upset win over Alabama, the 17-15 #11 Vanderbilt Commodores aim for another underdog victory as they take on the 25-6 #3 Kentucky Wildcats in the SEC Tournament Quarterfinals today at 8:30 PM EST.

Kentucky swept the Commodores in the regular season with wins of 12 and 7 points, but Vanderbilt has won three straight and are an incredible 10-1-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last dozen games.

Can the Wildcats slam the door on the Commodores' season or will Vanderbilt keep their hot streak going?

Here are the odds via WynnBET to help us decipher some value:

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Vanderbilt +11 (-110)
  • Kentucky -11 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Vanderbilt: +475
  • Kentucky: -650

Total:

  • 141.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Prediction and Pick

Scottie Pippen Jr. has been the driving force behind Vanderbilt's strong play. The dude has been incredible, scoring at least 22 points in 11 of his last 14 games. Believe it or not, over each team's last five matchups, both the Commodores and Kentucky rank in the 78th percentile in net rating (point differential per 100 possessions).

Kentucky's offense is still fantastic, but they've become a turnstile defense, falling from the 88th percentile on the season to the 4th in their last five contests. That's bad news against a Vanderbilt offense that is in the 98th percentile in effective field goal percentage in the same time frame. The Wildcats haven't been great to bettors lately, either, going 5-8-1 ATS in their last 14 and just 3-6 ATS in their last nine as a favorite.

Vanderbilt may have a bench edge here too, as they're in the 86th percentile in bench scoring in their last five while Kentucky is in the 23rd.

With how well the Commodores are playing and the confidence they'll get from the Alabama win, I think they're live dogs and love, love, love catching 11 points against a Wildcats squad that's not playing any defense.

Give me Vanderbilt to cover and it wouldn't shock me if they came out on top.

Pick: Vanderbilt +11 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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