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VCU vs. South Florida Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NIT Second Round

By Iain MacMillan

Mar 8, 2024; Dayton, Ohio, USA; The Virginia Commonwealth Rams cross arms during the national
Mar 8, 2024; Dayton, Ohio, USA; The Virginia Commonwealth Rams cross arms during the national / Matt Lunsford-USA TODAY Sports
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The VCU Rams upset the No. 1 seed Villanova in the opening round of the NIT. The USF Bulls also pulled off an upset, taking down the No. 4 UCF Knights.

Now, the two unranked teams will face-off in the second round on Sunday with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.

The Rams carry the reputation of the Atlantic 10 on their shoulders while the Bulls will try to get the bad taste of a Conference Tournament collapse out of their mouth after having nothing to show for a 16-2 regular season in the AAC.

Let's dive into the odds for Sunday's game and then I'll break down my best bet.

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VCU vs. USF odds, spread, and total

VCU vs. USF betting trends

  • VCU is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in VCU's last five games
  • VCU is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games vs. AAC opponents
  • USF is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games
  • The OVER is 5-1 in USF's last six games

VCU vs. USF how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, March 24
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Yuengling Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPNU/ESPN+
  • VCU Record: 23-13
  • USF Record: 25-7

VCU vs. USF key players to watch

VCU

Max Shulga: Not only is Max Shulga VCU's leading scorer, but he's also leading the team with assists, averaging 3.7 per game. He runs this offense and when he brings his "A" game, VCU benefits in a big way. He scored 10 points and recorded six assists in the first round game against Villanova.

USF

Kasean Pryor: VCU has a stout interior defense which means USF's forward, Kasean Pryor, is going to have to be at his best if they want to have any success down low against the Rams. He's their leading rebounder, averaging 7.8 per game, while also averaging 26.3 points per contest. He scored 17 points and racked up eight rebounds in their first round game against the Knights.

VCU vs. USF prediction and pick

In my opinion, USF was one of the most underrated teams in the country this season so I won't hesitate to back the Bulls as slight favorites against VCU.

Both teams rank inside the top 50 in the country in three-point shot rate but it's South Florida that's the much better three-point shooting team, going 37.1% from beyond the arc, while VCU has a three-point field goal percentage of 35.7%.

The biggest issue for VCU is turnovers. They cough the ball up on 17.9% of its possessions which ranks 275th in the country. Now, they face a Bulls team that does a great job of forcing turnovers, ranking 89th in opponent turnovers per possession.

As a result, USF averages +1.1 extra scoring chances per game while VCU averages -1.3. In a game between two teams with very similar shooting numbers, it's the extra scoring chances that could make all the difference. I'll back USF to get the job done.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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