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VCU vs. Villanova Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NIT Tournament (Back the Underdog Rams)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for VCU-Villanova. 

By Shelby Dermer

Mar 16, 2024; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Virginia Commonwealth Rams guard Max Shulga (11) at Barclays Center.
Mar 16, 2024; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Virginia Commonwealth Rams guard Max Shulga (11) at Barclays Center. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
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An impressive NET Ranking will only take you so far, as Villanova found out the hard way in its bid for the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats seemingly lived on the bubble all year in the second season of the Kyle Neptune era, but faltered down the stretch with a 1-3 end to the season, culminated by an overtime loss to Marquette in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals.

Now a No. 1 seed in the NIT, can Villanova pull away from VCU in the first round? The Rams ended the regular season on a three-game losing streak, but won three straight in the A-10 Tournament before falling to Duquesne in the championship game, 57-51. Here’s a betting preview of the matchup with a best bet.

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VCU vs. Villanova Odds, Spread and Total

VCU vs. Villanova Betting Trends

  • VCU is 20-13-2 ATS this season
  • Villanova is 17-16 ATS this season
  • VCU is 6-3-1 ATS as an underdog this season 
  • Villanova is 12-9 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 15-20 in VCU games this season
  • The OVER is 11-22 in Villanova games this season

VCU vs. Villanova How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, March 20
  • Game time: 9 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Finneran Pavilion
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN 2/ESPN+
  • VCU record: 22-13
  • Villanova record: 18-15

VCU vs. Villanova Key Players to Watch

VCU

Max Shulga: The 6-foot-4 senior guard is VCU’s leading scorer at 14.6 points per game and will need to be at his best against a stingy Villanova defense. Shulga shoots over 40% from beyond the arc this season. Shulga anchored VCU’s run to the A-10 final, scoring 25 points on 10-of-11 shooting in the semifinal win over Saint Joseph’s.

Villanova 

Eric Dixon: The forward has led Villanova with experience as one of the few pieces left from the Wildcats’ run to the Final Four in 2022. Dixon is Villanova’s leading scorer at 16.5 points per game and put up a double-double (19 points, 11 rebounds) in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals loss to Marquette.

VCU vs. Villanova Prediction and Pick 

Two defensive-oriented teams that slow down the pace will square off. Both squads are in the bottom half of the country in tempo, and few teams move slower than Villanova. The Wildcats are No. 347 in KenPom in adjusted tempo and take up nearly 19 seconds per possession. 

The problem? Villanova doesn’t make the most of its long possessions. The Wildcats are below-average in every major shooting metric and don’t crash the glass, ranking No. 297 in offensive rebounding percentage as they focus on getting back on defense and limiting transition opportunities for the opponent. They’ll face a VCU defense that is No. 19 in effective field goal percentage. Villanova shoots 3s at the No. 11 rate in the nation but VCU is No. 43 against shots from downtown. 

VCU’s offense is top-100 in effective field goal percentage and relies heavily on perimeter shooting. The Rams shoot 3-pointers at the 38th-highest rate in the nation but Villanova is stingy from beyond the arc, ranking second in the Big East against triples. 

VCU has been great as a road underdog this season and points should be limited between two great defenses. Grab the points with the Rams. 

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Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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