Vegas Expects a HUGE Day From Christian McCaffrey in Panthers vs. Dolphins

Christian McCaffrey is back to getting 1.01 draft pick treatment from the oddsmakers.

Since returning from a major hamstring injury in Week 9, the Carolina Panthers star running back has gone over 100 total yards in all three games, two of which came against two of the better defenses in the NFL in New England and Arizona.

This week, the Panthers travel to Miami to face the Dolphins as 1.5-point favorites at WynnBET Sportsbook. This line was one of the biggest movers of the week as Carolina opened as a 1-point underdog on the road before being bet up a full 2.5 points. via WynnBET communications, Carolina -1.5 has received 77.4% of the spread betting tickets, as well as 80% of the betting handle.

Let's take a look at how Vegas projects CMC's day to go this week. All prop bet odds are courtesy of WynnBET:

Christian McCaffrey Prop Bet Numbers for Week 12

Anytime TD Scorer (-182)

The Dolphins began the season giving up over 121 rushing yards in five straight games before only allowing over 100 rush yards twice in the last six games. However, I don't see the value here to bet CMC at nearly 1/2 odds.

McCaffrey in six games only has two touchdowns scored. In the red zone, Cam Newton has kept the ball; scoring a rushing touchdown in his last two games. Until McCaffrey becomes their lead red zone threat, the odds are worth staying away from.

Over/Under 72.5 Rushing Yards (Over -125 / Under -115)

This is another under I like this week as CMC's rushing attempts have slowly declined in the three games he's played since returning from injury. In the 24-6 loss to New England, McCaffrey rushed 14 times for 52 yards, followed by 13 for 95, and 10 for 59 in their 27-21 loss to Washington.

When fully healthy, OVER 72.5 yards is almost an expectation each week from McCaffrey, but with the Dolphins' run defense back to respectability, along with more usage in the passing game from McCaffrey instead of between the tackles, I'm banking on another game in the 50's or 60s for rushing yards.

Over/Under 54.5 Reception Yards (Over -125 / Under -115)

While CMC hasn't had the rushing attempts bettors have become accustomed to seeing, he's been very active in the passing game. In his last three games back from injury, McCaffrey has caught 21 of 23 passing targets for 180 yards and touchdown.

Through 11 games, Miami has allowed 405 passing yards and two touchdowns to the running back position, good for 36.8 receiving yards per game. McCaffrey this year has averaged 57.2 receiving yards/game, including 60/game over his last three matchups.

With McCaffrey's rushing attempts going down, I like the over on this prop to hit as the Panthers will continue to rely on his versatility and ability to catch passes out of the backfield.