Vegas Golden Knights Are Most Overvalued Stanley Cup Bet in NHL
The NHL All-Star break is here, which is the perfect time for me to air my opinion about something.
The Vegas Golden Knights are the most overvalued team in the NHL when it comes to Stanley Cup odds.
They're tied for third with the Panthers on the odds list at WynnBET to take home the hardware at +850 (bet $100 to profit $850). I truly don't think those odds are warranted, and we have a big enough sample size of games for me to prove my points.
Why Are the Golden Knights Considered Serious Contenders?
As I've said in the past, I'm a slave to the statistics. I look at advanced analytics every day when I'm deciding who to bet on, and I never understand why the oddsmakers love the Golden Knights.
Here's a look at how they rank in stats that I consider important when evaluating a team:
- 13th in CORSI%
- 9th in FENWICK%
- 6th in Expected Goals per 60 Minutes
- 22nd in Expected Goals Against per 60 Minutes
- 6th in High Danger Scoring Chances
- 32nd in High Danger Scoring Chances Against
- 13th in Shooting Percentage
- 21st in Save Percentage
If you ready through those numbers without knowing what team they belonged to, I bet you wouldn't consider them the third best team in the NHL, based on Stanley Cup odds.
Sure, they're a solid team offensively, ranking in the top 10 in a few key offensive areas, but they are absolutely abysmal in their own end. 22nd in expected goals against per 60 minutes and DEAD LAST in the NHL in high danger scoring chances against. It's near impossible to win the Cup while playing that poorly in your own end.
Vegas Benefits from Weak Pacific Division
Vegas supporters will cite the fact that they have the easiest path to the Stanley Cup due to playing in the weak Pacific Division. While that may be true, I don't know if they're good enough to be considered a lock against certain divisional opponents. In fact, any of the Kings, Flames, or Oilers would give them trouble in the postseason, based on the analytics.
The Golden Knights still have a lot of time to figure things out in the defensive zone, but until they do, I would recommend staying away from any kind of Vegas futures.
Iain's NHL betting record this season is 60-54-1 (+5.31 units). You can see his detailed results so far in the 2022 calendar year here.