Vegas Has it Wrong with Jazz Favored over Mavericks as Luka Doncic Could Return Soon
By Ben Heisler
Technically, the Utah Jazz stole away home court advantage over the Dallas Mavericks; defeating the Luka Doncic-less Mavs 99-93 in Game 1 in Dallas.
Technically, they're the fifth-best home team in the NBA; going 29-12-0 straight up, trailing only Phoenix, Golden State, Miami and Memphis.
Technically, the Jazz deserve to be the favorites heading into Game 3 with the visiting Mavericks; listed as 6-point underdogs at WynnBET Sportsbook.
But after watching Utah blow yet another fourth quarter lead down the stretch; this time in a playoff game without the Mavericks best player, if you think the Jazz make it out of this series, you may want to think again.
Time to Break Up the Jazz
Back on March 30, Jazz star guard Donavan Mitchell expressed his disbelief with their team's inability to hold fourth quarter leads.
"I don't even know what to say... It's the same shit. I mean yeah it feels the same way. It's the same thing. This is literally the same thing... I don't know what to say."
— Tomer Azarly (@TomerAzarly) March 30, 2022
Donovan Mitchell on Jazz blowing 25-point 2nd half lead to Clippers. pic.twitter.com/uhANFbusvn
History repeated itself in Game 2, as Utah got outscored by double digits in the 4th quarter, leading the way for a career game for both Jalen Brunson and Maxi Kleber.
Per @ESPNStatsInfo, the Mavs made 17 uncontested 3s in win over Jazz, the most by any team in last 10 postseasons. That includes seven of Maxi Kleber’s eight 3s.
— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) April 19, 2022
Per Brian Dameris, Utah has now blown six double-digit leads in the 4th quarter this year; including three by 16+ points just in the last month alone! They're just outside the bottom 10 in most 4th quarter points allowed this season, and don't appear to have fixed any of the costly mistakes that have kept them in this position.
Is that a team you trust to make adjustments, especially if reinforcements come to Dallas?
The Mavericks are a Sleeping Giant in the Western Conference
The Mavericks currently hold +2000 odds to win the West at WynnBET, trailing the Suns (-130), Warriors (+275), Grizzlies (+700), Jazz (+1000) and Timberwolves (+1600) to play in the NBA Finals. But there is some good news on the horizon.
According to NBA insider Shams Charania, Doncic is set to return within the series, and perhaps as early as this weekend.
Sources: There’s optimism Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic will return for Game 3 (Thursday) or Game 4 (Saturday) vs. Jazz. The calf strain that Doncic suffered on April 10 is improving and workouts over next two days could determine comeback timing.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 19, 2022
Should Doncic return this weekend, it's hard to fathom a scenario that works in the advantage for Utah. They're clearly favored to win Game 3, and maybe a 2-1 series lead forces Doncic back slightly earlier at less than 100%.
It's a difficult road ahead for Dallas should they win the series. They'd be staring down a second round matchup with the consensus favorite in the Phoenix Suns to win the NBA Finals, and then would likely play the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. But if there's a team capable of beating both favorites at full strength, it's Dallas; taking two of three games from the Warriors this season.
The Mavericks could be the sleeping giant in the West that nobody's considering; and if Doncic looks the part when he returns, the value will vanish quickly.
Don't miss the boat.
Who is the BetSided team betting to come out of the East and Western Conference? Get our picks on a new episode of "Best Bets."