Vegas Isn't Buying Providence's Hot Start

Let's do an exercise. Here are two teams with some simple facts about each. The only hint I'll give is that they are both in the Big East.

Team A: 18-2, 8-1 in Big East Play, have beaten 5 KenPom top 30 teams this season.

Team B: 15-4, 6-2 in Big East Play, have beaten 2 KenPom top 30 teams this season.

The top team is Providence, who has a game lead on the highly touted Villanova Wildcats in the Big East. The second team I jotted down is Connecticut, who many see as the second best team in the conference to Nova.

Now, I'm not saying the Friars are the class of the Big East, but is it time to give them some respect over the likes of UConn, Xavier and Marquette?

Ed Cooley's bunch are not looked at favorably by advanced metrics. They are ranked 48th in the database with the 56h best offense and 55th best defense. They don't do anything elite, but they are rock solid. ShotQuality isn't buying the 18-2 start either, ranking them as the luckiest team based on shot profiles in the country. The website believes that Providence is closer to an 11-8 team.

But, they win! It has to count for something!

Last week, Providence won in the final seconds at Xavier as 8-point underdogs and beat Marquette as short home favorites in the last minute. So, they are running real well and the betting market isn't counting on the Friars to keep up their winning ways.

Providence Faces St. John's Tonight

The team is a 2.5-point underdog at WynnBET Sportsbook at St. John's, who is a fringe bubble team at the moment. Is this misguided? KenPom, who I mentioned is not high on the Big East club, still projects the team as winners in this game (by a single point). Haslemetrics projects the Johnnie's as one point winners. So, this game is a near coin flip.

My numbers have been pretty high on the Friars, I have them ranked 35th in my individual power ratings, so I see them a bit better than a service like KenPom or Haslemetrics (60th). However, I make the game about a pick in this matchup and believe that the "spot" of Providence is "due" for a loss is overrated.

St. John's struggles on the glass and fouls a lot, two keys to Providence's success as they navigate their roster without guard AJ Reeves. However, given that the Friars just had a revenge victory over Marquette in the final seconds, I'm more concerned about fatigue over the past week may impact the team more than the "spot" or anything like that.

The Red Storm have a ton of variance in their games based on their high turnover rate, they rank 275th in Haslemetrics' consistency rating and play at the sixth fastest tempo, so I'm not all that interested in betting the game. If it gets to +3 again, I'd b show some value in betting the Friars, but overall I think that this narrative that Providence is overrated is a bit overblown.