Vegas View: Which College Football Teams are the Public Backing Most?

For many sharp bettors, “fading the public” remains one of many effective strategies to wagering success.

Public bettors traditionally fall into the category of fans wanting to bet for a little more action on a college football Saturday or NFL Sunday. Rather than look for the right number, they focus on the team or the game they plan to tune-in to watch. The “public” traditionally loves to bet favorites against the spread, and “overs” in totals, because as the old adage goes, “Life is too short to bet the under.”

Unfortunately, sportsbooks know this as well, which is why fading the public can become a profitable formula for sharp bettors. This, of course, is in addition to many other steps that take time, effort and lots of practice.

Who are the public backed teams for the 2021 college football season?

With all of this in mind, as the college football season begins, I was curious to see who public bettors were starting to invest in for futures bets in 2021. Are the same teams that are being discussed on ESPN and on sports talk radio the same teams that the public is buying on?

WynnBET’s Senior Lead Trader for college football, Matt Lindeman, tells BetSided that they’ve seen a lot of public bets come in on two teams in particular:

“It seems like the public is high on Iowa State – which makes sense given how well it finished last season and the fact most of its team is back,” Lindeman said. 

“The public also seems to like Miami, who has plenty of upside with quarterback D’Eriq King back.”

Iowa State’s 2020 season is fresh in the minds of bettors

Last season, the Cyclones were one of college football’s best stories. The Fiesta Bowl champions return all but three starters for head coach Matt Campbell, and are expected to finish behind only Oklahoma (-175) in the Big 12 at +275 odds.

Both their quarterback, Brock Purdy, as well as running back Breece Hall are expected to be two of the best at their positions in college football, and could be names considered for the Heisman. Defensively, the Cyclones were among the best schools in the country in points allowed and yards/game, and brought back stars like Will McDonald IV, who finished with 10.5 sacks in 2020, as well as Big 12 leading tackler Mike Rose.

The Cyclones enter the 2021 season at +5000 (50/1 odds) at WynnBET to win the College Football Playoff.

Miami QB D’Eriq King has been a major offseason storyline

King suffered a brutal knee injury during the Hurricanes’ bowl game in December, but he is 100% healthy ahead of this year. He currently is listed at +700, tied for the fourth-lowest odds to win the Heisman Trophy at WynnBET.

King had a fantastic 2020 season before getting hurt. He threw for 23 touchdowns on just under 2,700 yards with just five picks. He also rushed for 538 yards and scored four times as well. Furthermore, King became one of the new faces of college football’s NIL era, where athletes can finally receive compensation for their name, likeness and image.

Similar to Iowa State, the Hurricanes return 20 of 22 starters this season, eager to show that their 2020 campaign was not their ceiling, but a stepping stone to legitimate contention in Coral Gables.

The Hurricanes come into 2021 at +6000 odds, or 60/1 to win the National Championship game.

Ultimately, it’s easy to understand why public bettors want to take the higher odds with both Iowa State and Miami. Both teams have the experience, talent and high expectations to create a relatable narrative. However, I’ll look to fade both teams heading into the early portion of the season while the public remains on board.

Disagree with fading the public? Have your eyes on other teams being overlooked?

Make your pick before the season kicks off today with the WynnBET app!