Vegas Way Too Low on This Braves vs. Phillies Pitching Prop

It's not often when you find a Vegas player projection prop that feels completely out of whack with your own numbers, but when you do, you have to pounce as quickly as possible before the line moves.

Today's Atlanta Braves versus Philadelphia Phillies matchup is that game today, with Philadelphia entering as -175 money line favorites against Atlanta (+145) over at WynnBET. The projected total is posted at 9.5 runs (-115 under, -105 over).

Right-hander Touki Toussaint gets the ball for the Braves today as road underdogs, and his strikeout prop number looks far too low considering his talent, as well as the matchup. WynnBET has listed the total at 4.5 strikeouts, with the under heavily favored at -140, compared to plus-odds on the over at +105.

Toussaint is a former first round pick back in 2014, and is coming off a terrific outing his last time out versus the San Diego Padres. In 6.2 innings pitched, he gave up just one earned run, striking out five with just three hits and two walks. For reference, the Padres strike out the third-fewest amount of times in the Major Leagues, compared to the Phillies who own the eighth-highest strikeout percentage in baseball.

The 25-year old is also coming off of a shoulder strain, but was efficient and effective in his first start back. Now fully healthy and a start in the books, there's little reason to think manager Brian Snitker should have any reason to hold him back.

Atlanta sits four games back of the New York Mets for first place in the National League East division, and are a game under .500 at 48-49. However, the record doesn't tell the full story as the Braves are +38 in run differential this season, a full +27 runs better than their first place counterparts at +11. MLB.com's expected win-loss record has the Braves projected at 52-45, suggesting they've had some hard luck in the first half of the season relative to where their record should be.

Atlanta and Philadelphia both hold the same record with a shot to take the series today. Between the Braves looking to jump back to .500, to Toussaint taking advantage of an opportunistic matchup, expect the talented, yet inconsistent right-hander to clear the over on his strikeout prop of 4.5 today.

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