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Villanova vs. Baylor Prediction and Odds: Value on Total

By Reed Wallach

Dec 4, 2021; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard Matthew Mayer (24) shoots
Dec 4, 2021; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard Matthew Mayer (24) shoots / Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
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Villanova travels to Waco, Texas on Sunday afternoon in a battle between a pair of top six teams when they face the defending National Champions, Baylor.

While the Bears lost some key contributors to last season's title team, they are right back amongst the nation's elite this season with an imposing front court and outstanding perimeter shooting.

Can Nova exact some revenge after losing to their opponent in the Sweet 16 last NCAA Tournament behind the likes of Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore?

Here are the odds for this marquee matchup, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Villanova vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Villanova +5 (-115)
  • Baylor -5 (-105)

Moneyline:

  • Villanova +170
  • Baylor -200

Total: 137 (Over -105/Under -115)

Villanova vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

Both offense's should be able to thrive, leading me to an over bet.

Baylor's no-middle defense should set up the Villanova offense to bomb from three with little resistance, their preferred method of scoring. Jay Wright's team is top 10 in three-point rate this season and canning triples at a 39% clip this season, 18th in the country.

Baylor's an elite defensive team, seventh in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric, but I believe Nova will get their fair share from deep as Scot Drew's team is more focused on limiting shots at the rim, not the perimeter.

On the other end, Baylor's physical big men that help generate offensive rebounds on more than 41% of available opportunities should be able to outmuscle the undersized Villanova big men. The Wildcats are middle of the pack nationally on the defensive glass.

As well, I like Baylor to also get going from beyond the arc. The team is shooting just 34% from beyond the arc this season, but Villanova's zone defense allows a high rate of three's to opponents, bottom 100 in that metric. Matthew Mayer, LJ Cryer and the now healthy Adam Flagler can get hot from deep against the Nova zone.

While I think the Bears take care of business in a statement win, I can't lay the five points considering I see a path for success for both teams on offense, so I'll back the over.

PICK: OVER 137, play to 138

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