Villanova vs. Houston Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament Elite Eight
By Reed Wallach
Houston is trying to make their second straight Final Four, but will need to go through one of the most balanced teams in the country, Villanova, in order to do so.
After knocking off No. 1 seeded-Arizona on Thursday night, Houston advances to the Elite 8 behind their stifling defense, but will face Jay Wright's well-oiled machine that is the Villanova Wildcats, the No. 2 seed in the South.
Here are the odds for this Elite Eight matchup on Saturday from WynnBET Sportsbook, with the No. 5 seeded-Houston Cougars sitting as the small favorite.
Villanova vs. Houston Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Villanova: +2 (-110)
- Houston: -2 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Villanova: +115
- Houston: -140
Total: 128 (Over -110/Under -110)
Villanova vs. Houston Prediction and Pick
This matchup pits two excellent teams and the margin is thin. Both teams are bottom 20 in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom, but these two teams are awesome. All four units inside the top 25 in adjusted efficiency.
Each team is elite on both ends and have strengths that can be the difference in advancing to the Final Four. Houston is the elite offensive rebounding unit, third in the country in OREB% this season, and have exceeded their season average in wins over Illinois and Arizona. Villanova is good at forcing teams out along the perimeter with their matchup zone, but they aren't all that great at cleaning the glass, 196th in the nation in DREB%.
Nova forces team out along the perimeter which can be problematic for the Cougars, who are outside the top 100 in 3-point percentage. However, the team excels at simply taking more shots than you and dominating ball possession, which they can do.
On the other side, Villanova is a fantastic shooting team. Five guys that play significant minutes shoot over 33% from beyond the arc and the team is fantastic at protecting the ball (28th in TO rate). The Cougars shut off the paint for opponents and Nova is happy to oblige, posting the 17th highest 3-point attempt rate in the country, but I worry that in a limited possession battle they don't get enough looks to win this one.
For now I will lean towards Houston's defense and offensive rebounding generating enough offense to win a game played in the 60's to go to the Final Four.
LEAN: Houston ML -140
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