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Villanova vs. Kansas Updated Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament Final Four

By Reed Wallach

Mar 20, 2022; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Villanova Wildcats guard Collin Gillespie (2) dribbles the ball
Mar 20, 2022; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Villanova Wildcats guard Collin Gillespie (2) dribbles the ball / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
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The Final Four is here! The NCAA Tournament semifinals go down Saturday night with a pair of prestigious college basketball programs battling it out for the claim to be the 2022 National Champions.

The first game of the 2022 Final Four is No. 2 seed in the South Region, Villanova, taking on No. 1 seed from the Midwest Region, Kansas. Jay Wright's Wildcats are the Big East champions and will face off against the Big 12 champs in New Orleans, Louisiana. These have been two of the elite clubs this season and expect a high level game on Saturday night.

Let's break down the odds for this one from WynnBET Sportsbook before getting to the best bet:

Villanova vs. Kansas Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Villanova: +4 (-110)
  • Kansas: -4 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Villanova: +167
  • Kansas: -195

Total: 134 (Over -110/Under -110)

Villanova vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick

Let's start with the big news around this game: Villanova guard Justin Moore suffered an Achilles injury in the final minutes of the team's Elite 8 victory over Houston. He will predictably be out for this game, generating a ton of line movement in this game. Has the shift in market been too much?

With or without Moore, Kansas' defense can be had. The team may be 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, but is 47th in ShotQuality's adjusted defensive efficiency, meaning that the team's allows good looks to opponents and should be much worse than their record indicates.

KU doesn't force turnovers (191st in turnover rate) and is fine on the defensive glass (159th in DREB%). Gillespie can create efficient looks for this offense against a leaky defense that has been ripe for regression all Tournament.

Moore's loss will hurt on the perimeter against a sweet shooting Kansas team, but the Jayhawks don't allow a ton of 3's to begin with, 74th lowest opponent 3-point rate this season, and the Wildcats can use their inverted offense with Gillespie in the post to take advantage of the Jayhawks backcourt and finish inside. While Nova isn't a big team by any means, it does matchup well against a small frontcourt rotation of David McCormack and Mitch Lightfoot given their matchup zone defense that keeps teams outside the paint.

The Wildcats may have been middling on the glass this season, but they showed they are more than capable of hanging on the glass against an elite rebounding team in Houston on both sides of the floor.

I'm not concerned about Villanova's top 10 offense finding answers on that side of the ball, but I still believe this line is an overreaction because of the stark contrast in styles.

Kansas wants to run, as it posted the 40th fastest average possession length in the country, but Nova put up the ninth slowest. The team is excellent at limiting transition opportunities and if they are able to force the Jayhawks into a half court grind, I'll be happy to have Villanova with the points.

If Wright and the Cats find a way to slow this game into a half court matchup, they can stay within this number. Yes, the loss of Moore is significant, but with Nova's deliberate pace and excellent game planning from Wright, I'm going to lean towards them being a valuable underdog considering there will be a low amount of possessions and I'm not confident in the KU defense exposing the loss of Moore.

Most advanced metric sites pegged the Jayhawks as a 1-point favorite, including KenPom and Haselmetrics. Even if we factor in that the Wildcats closed as 3-point underdogs to Houston in the Elite 8, I don't believe that Kansas is 1.5 points better than the Cougars nor that Moore is worth more than 1-point.

Let's look at the other side, with Kansas closing as 6-point favorites against Miami in the Elite 8. Miami and Villanova sans Moore are not separated by 1.5 points, thus leading me to a bet on the Big East Champs.

Further, I mentioned the deliberate pace of Nova and how they will look to slow this game down. The team does run a very short rotation, so the loss of Moore is going to hurt in some fashion, but I think we see the Wildcats execute on their terms early before Kansas adjusts. With limited possessions, in a football stadium (which always helps unders), I'll lean towards the 1H Under as well.

PICK: Villanova +4,1H Under 61.5

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