Villanova vs. Marquette Prediction and Odds (Back Marquette to Keep It Close)

No. 12 Villanova travels to play at No. 24 Marquette in what has the potential to be an incredible game. These two teams match up very well, and as the betting lines indicate, this is expected to be close.

Who has the edge in tonight’s matchup?

Let’s start with the odds via WynnBET.

Villanova vs. Marquette Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Villanova -4.5 (-110)
• Marquette +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Villanova -195
• Marquette +165

Total:

• 132.5 (Over -115 | Under -105)

Villanova vs. Marquette Prediction and Pick

Villanova is a very strong team and is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now, but these two teams met only two weeks ago and Marquette handed the Wildcats their only loss in their last 10 games. That wasn’t a fluke — Marquette can play.

If you want teams that are fascinating studies, then Villanova checks that box. The Wildcats play at the third-slowest adjusted tempo in the country at only 60.8 possessions per 40 minutes, but also have the sixth-most efficient offense with 118.1 points per 100 minutes and the 19th-most efficient defense, holding opponents to 90.9 points per 100 minutes. 

Despite a slower pace and limited possessions, Villanova has the 16th-highest average scoring margin at +12.4, and makes the 22nd-most 3s per game at 9.5. It holds opponents to 60.1 points per game.

As I said earlier, though, Marquette has the tools to match, and the Golden Eagles will get them at home this time.

Marquette and Villanova are equally matched in the rebounds department, with Marquette having an advantage on the defensive glass while Villanova is strong on the offensive glass. Marquette has a slightly higher effective field goal percentage at 52.3% compared to 52.1%, and its defense holds opponents to a lower eFG percentage than Villanova does.

There’s no reason to believe that this won’t be another close matchup between these two teams, and especially with Marquette playing at home, I’ll give the Golden Eagles the nod to cover.

Lean: Marquette +4.5 (-110)

You can find all of Jon Helmkamp’s picks here.