Villanova vs. UConn Prediction and Odds (Betting Overreaction on the Total)

Two of the Big East's best go at it when Villanova travels to Hartford to face the Connecticut Huskies.

These two met on February 5th with Nova winning convincingly 85-74 without star forward Justin Moore, but the Huskies are going to try and get some revenge in front of a raucous home crowd.

Here are the odds and our best bet for the Big East showdown from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Villanova vs. UConn Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Villanova: +2 (-110)
• UConn: -2 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Villanova: +112
• UConn: -135

Total: 137.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Villanova vs. UConn Prediction and Pick

I'm confused by the line movement towards the over, which opened widely at 136.5 and has gone as high as 138.5 before settling at 137.5 as of this writing. Let's go back to that Feb. 5 meeting, just 17 days ago, with the total closing at 128.5! The game flew over the total with 159 points scored, but doesn't this feel like a massive overreaction?

A nine-point adjustment in two-and-a-half weeks feels misguided and I believe that people are overlooking the fact that these are two of the stronger defensive teams in the Big East. Not to mention, the second meeting between opponents are typically lower scoring with more familiarity on the court. In the first game, the two opponents combined for 35-for-38 foul shooting and 14-for-31 3-point shooting. Those are high end offensive outputs and I don't see it being replicated.

I don't expect the same hot shooting and I expect a much tighter game with higher stakes. Both teams are strong at defending the rim and also limiting transition opportunities, so I'll side with the under as one of my favorite bets on the Tuesday night slate.

As for the side, the spread feels correct, but I find myself leaning towards the visitors. UConn is coming on strong with three straight wins but I still rate Nova as the class of the Big East. I trust their offense with Gillespie to find more success both inside and out and to take advantage of the Huskies poor turnover metrics (ninth in Big East play in turnover percentage).

PICK: UNDER 137.5, play to 135.5

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 66-61-3 for +1.96 units.