Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Prediction and Odds (Value on the Total)
By Reed Wallach
North Carolina limps home after a brutal road trip that saw them lose a pair of game by a combined 50 points to face a similarly floundering Virginia Tech team that lost to ACC bottom feeder Boston College on Saturday.
The Hokies have fallen way short of preseason expectations, sitting at 10-8 on the year, but advanced metrics continue to advocate for Mike Young's team. For example, KenPom ranks them No. 37 in the country. Can they hold up against a dominant team at home that is North Carolina?
Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Virginia Tech: +4.5 (-110)
- North Carolina: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Virginia Tech: +175
- North Carolina: -200
Total: 141 (Over -110/Under -110)
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick
This feels like a good time to buy both of theses offenses for different reasons. We'll start on the Tar Heels side, who couldn't keep up with Miami or Wake Forest on the road, but should have a better time handling the porous VT pick-and-roll defense.
The Hokies can't defend that sort of action at all, as evidenced by BC's 52% on two-point tries and 60% assist percentage around the screen and roll. UNC runs this offense a ton and has the shooting to make the Hokies pay on the perimeter.
The Heels are top 10 in the country from beyond the arc and play at a top 50 tempo. Not to mention, with size inside the Heels can find Armando Bacot down low. The Hokies are 13th in the ACC, allowing opponents to score on more than 54% of their two-point attempts in league play.
Back at home, I expect we see the game played on UNC's terms, which should be extra possessions against a typically slow playing Hokies team.
Meanwhile, North Carolina doesn't generate any turnovers, ranking bottom five in the country. If the Hokies are able to run their offense with little resistance, they can take advantage of a sputtering North Carolina defense. The Heels are allowing at on of open looks from three and the Hokies have the shooters to make them pay, top 10 in the nation.
In a game with a fairly close spread, free throws can decide this one, and these are the top two teams in conference play from the charity stripe. I see both offenses getting what they want all over the floor and this game clearing the total. I have it pegged at 144, so would be comfortable playing this to 142.
PICK: OVER 141
All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 21-29-3 for -9.02 units.