Virginia vs. Colorado State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Four
By Reed Wallach
The NCAA Tournament gets underway on Tuesday with First Four action from Dayton, Ohio.
No. 10 seeds Virginia and Colorado State will play for a spot in the Field of 64 and a first round meeting against Texas. The Cavaliers are paced by a stellar defense while Colorado State brings a more balance approach from the Mountain West Conference.
All eyes will be on the guard play as UVA's Reece Beekman looks to outduel CSU's Isaiah Stevens on Tuesday night and keep their season alive. Who has the edge in this near coin flip matchup?
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Virginia vs. Colorado State Odds, Spread and Total
Colorado State vs. Virginia Betting Trends
- Virginia is 17-15-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Virginia is 1-6 ATS as an underdog this season
- Colorado State is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games
- Virginia has gone UNDER in five of seven games this season
- Colorado State has gone UNDER in 19 of 32 games
Virginia vs. Colorado State How to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, March 19
- Game Time: 9:10 PM EST
- Venue: UD Arena
- How to Watch (TV): truTV
- Virginia Record: 23-10
- Colorado Record: 24-10
Virginia vs. Colorado State Key Players to Watch
Virginia
Reece Beekman: Beekman is an elite on-ball defender and does a ton of the heavy lifting for the Cavaliers offense, posting the highest assist rate in the country at nearly 45%. The Woos offense is incredibly limited, but Beekman does his best to generate offense as the team is fifth in turnover percentage and top 50 in 3-point percentage.
Colorado State
Isaiah Stevens: Like Beekman, Stevens does it all for the Rams, leading the team in scoring and assists (seventh in the nation in assist rate). He's a knockdown shooter as well at 42% from beyond the arc, and has kept the Rams in the NCAA Tournament picture all season. Can he outduel Beekman and the Virginia defense?
Colorado State vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick
This game has a comically low total and for good reason. Both teams lean on their defense and ability to make offenses work for contested jump shots. Neither team plays fast, Virginia is bottom three in adjusted tempo in the country per KenPom and Colorado State is 270th, and I give the edge to both defenses.
While the Cavaliers offense is incredibly limited, I believe the team can hang with Colorado State, who lacks the positional size to get into the teeth of the UVA defense and win with margin.
Virginia's packline defense should be able to stymie the Colorado State offense that is intent on getting inside, ranking as a top 25 midrange offense and at the rim in terms of points per possession. However, with Beekman and future first round pick Ryan Dunn at center, the Cavaliers can make life difficult for the MWC team.
On the other side, Virginia's offense will have trouble as well, but the team is comfortable getting to the midrange and finishing. UVA is 90th in midrange offense, per ShotQuality taking 31% of its shots from that area. That's notable against Colorado State, who allows the 12th highest rate of midrange two's and allow the 209th highest points per possession rate.
In a game where points will be at a premimum, I'll grab the points and take the Woos to cover.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.