Virginia vs. Duke Prediction and Odds (How to Bet ACC Showdown)

Duke Blue Devils forward Paolo Banchero.
Duke Blue Devils forward Paolo Banchero. / Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

The Duke Blue Devils continued to own the ACC this season over the weekend as the team went to Chapel Hill and blew out arch rival North Carolina on Saturday to improve to 9-2 in conference play.

Now, the team must keep their level up against Tony Bennett's Virginia Cavaliers. The two teams have had some battles over the past few years, but in what can be classified as a down year for UVA, can they hang around with Paolo Banchero and the Blue Devils?

Here are the odds for the ACC showdown at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday night from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Virginia vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total


  • Virginia: +11.5 (-110)
  • Duke: -11.5 (-110)


  • Virginia: +525
  • Duke: -750

Total: 128.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Virginia vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

Bennett and the Cavaliers know how to hang around with Duke, but this is not the same UVA team we have become accustomed to in the past. The team is lacking dynamic play making on the perimeter to beat the Blue Devils defense at the point of attack and doesn't have the size to finish around the rim with 7-footer Mark Williams protecting the rim.

However, despite their size advantage, Duke is a poor defensive rebounding club, ranking 12th in ACC play in defensive rebounding percentage. Meanwhile, Virginia is top half in offensive rebounding and have done a fine job of cashing in on second chance opportunities.

Meanwhile, Duke's defense may not be as good as advertised. The team has benefitted from some poor shooting of their opponents, ShotQuality believes they are closer to a 16-6 team than a 19-3 one, and the team has benefitted from the ACC's best 3-point defense at 28%.

Meanwhile, Virginia's offense has been humming of late, ranked 33rd in offensive efficiency per, since Jan. 1. Neither team is going to turn the other over and I expect Virginia to get up it's fair share of points against a regression bound Duke defense. The team will need to hit their perimeter shots, but I trust Bennett to draw up a good game plan to space the floor and get the requisite shots.

The unfortunate piece to this matchup for Bennett's team is that they won't slow down Banchero and the Duke offense. The team has too many oversized wings that can create inside and out to bust up UVA's pack line defense. I expect Duke to clean the glass (best in the ACC in offensive rebounding rate) and get clean looks from the perimeter. Virginia is outside the top 200 in three-point percentage allowed.

While it may seem counter-intuitive in a game with Virginia's methodical pace, I like the game to clear the the over in one I have pegged for 131 points.

PICK: OVER 128.5, play to 129.5

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 49-43-3 for +4.3 units.