Virginia vs. Houston Prediction and Odds: Take the Points with UVA

Virginia hits the road to face No. 15 Houston on Tuesday night in an early season inter-conference showdown.

Tony Bennett's Cavaliers were handed an opening night loss at home against Navy, but bounced back with a win over Radford over the weekend.

Meanwhile a year removed from a Final Four, Houston received an opening game scare against Hofstra, eeking out an overtime win.

How should we bet a likely defensive struggle? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportbsook.

Virginia vs. Houston Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Virginia: +7.5 (-115)
• Houston: -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline:

• Virginia: +255
• Houston: -330

Total:

• 123 (Over -110/Under -110)

Virginia vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

With a total this low, the underdog is always going to be my first look. Both teams are deliberate on offense, each outside the top 300 in adjsuted tempo, per KenPom.

While this roster may not be the National Championship level that Bennett had in 2019, UVA has enough shot making to hang within this number given the limited possessions on both sides, namely Indiana transfer Armaan Franklin, who shot 42% from deep last season.

Houston lost several key contributors from last year's team and is still integrating in new weapons such as Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards. While the likes of Marcus Sasser are expected to take a leap, I believe that this is simply too many points to lay against a team that is comfortable playing games below 60.

The key to this one will be UVA's ability to limit offensive rebounds for the Cougars. Since 2018, coach Kelvin Sampson has had an elite offensive rebounding unit, no worse than 33rd per KenPom, nd the early returns for the Cavaliers are shaky on the glass, allowing Navy to grab 10 and Radford to grab 11. If Virginia can clean the glass, I like it to stay close late, especially given Houston's shaky free throw shooting, 65%.

PICK: Virginia +7.5, play to +7

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