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Virginia vs. Louisville Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 11

Analyzing the Virginia and Louisville face-off in college football Week 11. Get a breakdown of current odds, standout players, and crucial game trends.

By Reed Wallach

Nov 4, 2023; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals defensive back Storm Duck (29)
Nov 4, 2023; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals defensive back Storm Duck (29) / Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
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Louisville controls its own destiny to the ACC Championship Game against Florida State, and will get a chance to move one step closer on Thursday night against Virginia.

The Cardinals are fresh off a demolition of Virginia Tech and will look to lean on their vaunted defensive line and explosive play making to cover a big spread against a hapless Virginia team.

Virginia may turn back to Anthony Colandrea after Tony Muskett exited the team's last game against Georgia Tech. Here's everything else you need to know before betting on some Thursday night ACC football.

For more college football coverage, check out our deep dive on Penn State vs. Michigan here!

Virginia vs. Louisville Odds, Spread and Total

Louisville vs. Virginia Betting Trends

  • Virginia is 6-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Louisville is 6-1-1 ATS this season
  • Louisville is 5-0 ATS at home this season
  • Virginia is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season

Virginia vs. Louisville How to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, November 9
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
  • Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Louisville Record: 2-7
  • VirginiaRecord: 8-1

Louisville vs. Virginia Key Players to Watch

Louisville

Jamari Thrash: Thrash missed the Cards prior game against Virginia Tech, so make sure to keep an eye on his status on a short week. Thrash is the clear leader in the Lousiville passing game, hauling in 39 catches for 623 yards with four touchdowns. For reference, the next highest tally is Chris Bell with 13.

Virginia

Anthony Colandrea: If Muskett can't go on a short week it'll be the freshman Colandrea, who does have experience this season, albeit all in losing efforts. Colandrea has started three games and appeared in five, passing for 1,123 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Louisville vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick

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While injuries are going to play a role in this game and are worth monitoring, I'm eyeing the over in this one. Louisville has been an explosive offense all season, averaging more than nine yards per pass attempt and 31st in explosive play rate. The Virginia defense is towards the bottom of the ACC and have zero semblance of a pass rush, tallying only eight sacks on the year.

Louisville should be able to move the ball with relative ease in this one and convert from in close as Virginia is allowing touchdowns on more than 74% of opponents trips inside the red zone, 117th in the nation.

Meanwhile, the Virginia offense has been on the rise over the last several weeks. While Muskett has been playing good football under center, there's not much of a drop-off to Colandrea, who has a gun slinger mentality out there and is prone to plenty of explosive plays (both good and bad in the name of interceptions).

If it's Colandrea, he'll look to keep pushing the ball down the field, he passed for more than 260 yards in three starts this season and test a Louisville defense that is strong down-to-down, top 10 in success rate, but outside the top 80 whne it comes to explosive pass defense.

The over is my favorite look in this Thursday night showdown.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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